MLB odds: Astros vs. Mariners prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/26/2021
The Houston Astros begin their West Coast road trip with a showdown against an AL West rival in the Seattle Mariners. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make an Astros-Mariners prediction and pick for this AL West clash.
Houston currently stands at 61-39 and is 27-19 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Astros game so far this season, you’d be up $616 on the money line.
Seattle currently stands at 54-46 and is 32-21 at T-Mobile Park. If you put $100 on every single Mariners game so far this season, you’d be up $2,187 on the money line.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Astros-Mariners odds.
MLB Odds: Astros-Mariners Odds
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Houston Astros ML (-170)
Seattle Mariners ML (+150)
Over 8.5 Runs (-115)
Under 8.5 Runs (-105)
Why The Mariners Could Win This Game
While the Mariners are only slightly above .500 currently, they are the most profitable team in baseball for a reason. Seattle relies on a pitching staff that has been solid all year and clean defensive play to outperform nearly every pundit’s expectations so far.
The M’s offense doesn’t really put up numbers that jump off the page. Their biggest strength is the long ball (13th in the league in homers), and they’ve shown the ability to show patience at the plate (16th in the league in walks).
Seattle has also shown a penchant for winning close games, playing to an outstanding 23-8 record in one-run games. Considering that just under half of their matchups this year against the Astros have been one-run games, this is a good sign for the Mariners.
Darren McCaughan will be getting the majority of the work off the mound for Seattle on Monday. McCaughan has only pitched once at the major league level, but it was a positive outing. The righty tossed five innings and only gave up one earned run, getting the majority of his outs on the ground.
McCaughan isn’t blowing anyone away with heat, but he’s demonstrated decent control (only 13 walks in 59 innings in Triple-A last year) and can give the Mariners some length on a bullpen day. As long as he can hold the Astros to around three earned, Seattle has a shot of making that record in one-run games even better.
Why The Astros Could Win This Game
The Astros own a significant advantage both on the mound and in the batter’s box tonight.
At the plate, the Astros are owners of the highest OBP in the league while the Mariners hold the lowest OBP of all 30 teams. The Mariners are in the bottom third of the league in both hits and RBI’s and have the sixth-most strikeouts in the MLB. On the other hand, Houston leads the league in both hits and RBI’s.
This stark difference should only be accentuated by the guys on the mound tonight. Luis Garcia has been an underrated pitcher this season, pitching to a 2.86 ERA in 18 appearances. In his only appearance against Seattle this season, Garcia pitched five innings and gave up one earned run.
The righty has been a strikeout machine, K’ing 105 batters in only 91.1 innings pitched this year. Against a Mariners team that strikes out at the sixth-highest rate in the league, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Garcia rack up seven or eight K’s by the sixth inning.
Garcia has been a trustworthy arm all year. McCaughan is totally unproven in the big leagues and was really hurt by the long ball in Triple-A, a particularly bad trait to have against the Astros.
In 59.0 innings pitched, McCaughan gave up 12 home runs, coming out to a little over a homer every five innings. This was against Triple-A competition. McCaughan now faces a team that has the eighth-most home runs in the Major Leagues.
He might not get shelled immediately, but the Astros should eventually tack on some runs against the rookie.
Final Astros-Mariners Prediction & Pick
While I think the Astros do win this game, a line of -170 is too juiced up to lay on. Instead, turn to the total in what should be a relatively quiet day for both teams bats. Five of the last six Mariners games have cashed the under, and the last two Astros games have finished under the total as well. I think the trend continues tonight as Garcia and McCaughan both give their teams solid outings. Take the under in Seattle.
FINAL ASTROS-MARINERS PREDICTION: UNDER 8.5 RUNS (-105)