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MLB odds: Athletics vs. Padres prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/27/2021

Athletics, Padres

The San Diego Padres and Oakland Athletics begin a two-game set on Tuesday night in a cross-conference clash. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make an Athletics-Padres prediction and pick for this NL West clash.

San Diego currently stands at 58-44 and is 33-19 at home. If you put $100 on every single Padres game so far this season, you’d be down $431 on the money line.

Oakland currently stands at 56-45 and is 26-21 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Athletics game so far this season, you’d be up to $247 on the money line.

Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Athletics-Padres odds.

MLB Odds: Athletics-Padres Odds

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Oakland Athletics ML (+140)

San Diego Padres ML (-150)

Over 8.5 Runs (-115)

Under 8.5 Runs (-105)

Why The Athletics Could Win This Game

The Athletics are coming off three straight losses to the Seattle Mariners, but there were some positives from the series that Oakland can take into this matchup.

For one, all of Oakland’s losses came by a single run. It’s not like they were getting blown out of the water, as the runs scored in the series were actually exactly tied at 14 apiece between the Mariners and the A’s.

Secondly, Oakland’s bullpen wasn’t too overworked, and they were absolutely dominant. In 11.2 innings of work over the four matchups for the ‘pen, only Jake Diekman and Lou Trivino allowed one run apiece. The other 12 runs were all given up by A’s starters.

Now the A’s get to send James Kaprielian to the mound, one of their stronger starters. In 12 starts this year, the righty has pitched to a sparkling 2.65 ERA.

Kaprielian gets a shot to further slow a Padres offense that’s been quiet. In their last five matchups, San Diego has topped three runs in only one game.

The Oakland hurler certainly has swing and miss stuff, striking out 73 batters in just 68 innings this year. Add in the factor that the Padres have struck out 36 times in their last four games, and this could be a long night at the dish for Fernando Tatis and company.

In the batters’ box, the A’s get a chance to mash a pitcher that’s been frustratingly inconsistent. In Chris Paddack’s last four starts, he’s been shelled twice (4+ ER in 5 innings or less) and been solid twice (1 or less ER).

The one proven track record with Paddack is his inability to go deep into games. In 19 starts, he’s gone past five innings in only five of them. The A’s have a good shot to get at the Padres bullpen before they can bring in their elite closing unit. Look for Oakland to be aggressive early.

Why The Padres Could Win This Game

While Paddack starts have been a Padres’ bettor nightmare all season, there’s hope that he can break out of his funk soon.

Paddack returns to Petco Park tonight, and as a flyball pitcher, he performs much better in the pitcher-friendly ballpark. Paddack’s given up seven homers in his last five road outings, but just three in his last five home appearances.

Additionally, his last outing against Atlanta was his first all season in which he went at least five innings and allowed zero earned runs, giving Padres more hope for improvement tonight.

If the Padres get a repeat of Paddack’s last performance tonight, they should easily win this ball game. The biggest key is for Paddack to hand the ball over to the bullpen after at least five innings with a lead or a tie ballgame. San Diego’s bullpen has the lowest ERA in baseball and the fifth-lowest WHIP.

At the plate, San Diego needs to snap out of a funk they’ve been in for a few games now. They should look to do so tonight using the homer.

Kaprielian has given up multiple homers in a third of his starts, with three of those multi-homer outings allowed in his last six games. The first six batters in the Padres order are all homer threats, and if Kaprielian gets shaken early, it could be the Oakland starter who gets sent packing quickly.

The best strategy at the dish tonight for San Diego is to wait Kaprielian out. He’s only thrown more than 100 pitches in one outing all year, and the Oakland bullpen has thrown eight innings in the last two games.

Yes, the A’s bullpen has looked great of late, but fatigue has to set in eventually. If Kaprielian doesn’t complete five innings, the Padres have a major upper hand.

Final Athletics-Padres Prediction & Pick

After watching Chris Paddack pitch his last four matchups, I’m tempted to take the over, as two of the games he’ve started have eclipsed 20 runs. However, I’m just not sure the Padres will get to Kaprielian, and the Oakland bullpen has looked as elite as the Padres of late.

The best bang for your buck here is backing Oakland as underdogs on the road. Chris Paddack can implode and take the Padres out of the game early, and even if he doesn’t, I like the A’s chances to make this at least a 50/50 game in a dogfight with a solid pitching corp behind them. Give me Oakland at anything above +120.

FINAL ATHLETICS-PADRES PREDICTION: OAKLAND ATHLETICS ML (+140)