The Atlanta Braves will attempt to sweep the three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies as the NL East rivals meet in the finale at Citizens Bank Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Braves-Phillies prediction and pick.

 

The Braves defeated the Phillies 4-1 on Thursday. It did not start well for them, as the Phillies got the first shot in. Rhys Hoskins smacked a solo shot to left field for a home run. It was his 14th in 2022, giving the Phillies a 1-0 lead. The Braves led 2-1 when Adam Duvall came to the plate in the seventh. Next, Duvall hammered a shot down the left-field line for a solo home run. It was his ninth in 2022, giving the Braves a 3-1 lead. Michael Harris Jr. then clipped an RBI single to center for more insurance, and the Braves went on to win 4-1. 

The Braves are 44-32 and in second place in the NL East. Meanwhile, the Phillies are 39-37 and in third place. The Braves are 2-0 on the road against the Phillies this year. Alternatively, they are 12-17 on the road since 2019. The Phillies are 0-2 since Bryce Harper injured himself, and 4-8 overall without him this year. 

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Braves-Phillies odds:

MLB odds: Braves-Phillies Odds 

Braves: +1.5 (-170)

Phillies: -1.5 (+140)

Over: 8.5 (-110)

Under: 8.5 (-110)

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Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread

The Braves are rolling with Ian Anderson on the hill. Anderson is 6-4 with a 4.60 ERA in 2022. He lasted just four innings in his last start, allowing four earned runs on six hits with one home run, four walks, and six strikeouts. Anderson has thrown six innings in three of his previous five starts. However, he has also gone less than five innings in two of five starts. Anderson is somehow 3-1 despite a 5.06 ERA in five starts in June, as his teammates are providing him with run support. He is 1-0 with a 3.07 ERA in five starts against the Phillies in his career. Likewise, he is 0-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two career starts on the road against the Phillies, so he enjoys pitching at Citizens Bank Park. 

Matt Olson is one of the better additions in the game for the Braves. He also is killing the Phillies, batting .409 with three home runs, three RBIs, and five runs scored through six games against Philadelphia. Likewise, he is batting .353 with six home runs, seven RBIs, and eight runs scored through nine games. Olson has done plenty of damage in limited action against the Phillies and is a significant key to victory. 

Marcell Ozuna has not had the same success against the Phillies in 2022. He is batting .211 with a run scored through five games this year. However, Ozuna is batting .271 with 17 home runs, 59 RBIs, and 59 runs scored through 113 games against the Phillies. He has done well throughout his career against Philadelphia and is looking to replicate that success.

Travis d'Arnaud is also slumping against the Phillies, batting .200 with one home run and two RBIs in five games against the divisional rival. Likewise, he is batting .266 with 12 home runs and 43 RBIs through 86 games against the Phillies.

The Braves will cover the spread if Anderson can give them a great performance. Likewise, he may need some run support from his teammates to finish June strongly. It helps that he does not have to face Harper. 

Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread

The Phillies are going with Aaron Nola on the hill today. Nola is 4-5 with a 2.98 ERA in 2022. He went seven innings in his last start, allowing one earned run on seven hits with 10 strikeouts. Nola is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA in five June starts. However, he also is 2-1 with a 4.10 ERA in seven starts at home in 2022. Nola must find a way to pitch better in front of his fans and hopes to replicate his success against the Braves. 

Nola tossed 8 1/3 innings in a road start against the Braves earlier this season, allowing one earned run on five hits with 10 strikeouts. He is 13-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 26 starts against the Braves. Likewise, he is 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 13 starts at Citizens Bank Park. 

Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Schwarber are the biggest weapons left with Harper out. Hoskins is batting .250 with one home run, four RBIs and one run scored in six games against the Braves. He is hitting .223 with 11 home runs, 38 RBIs, and 40 runs scored through 76 career games. Schwarber has struggled against Atlanta, hitting .105 with one home run and one RBI through six games against the Braves. Likewise, he is batting .167 with three home runs, 10 RBIs, and 18 runs scored through 37 games against Atlanta. 

The Phillies need a dominant start from Nola to cover the spread. Additionally, they need Hoskins and Schwarber to pick up the slack and carry the team in Harper's absence. 

Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick

The Braves are the better team but have a bad pitcher on the hill. However, the Phillies have the better pitcher but also are without Harper. Nola's dominance gives the Phillies the edge. The game has a 4-2 feel to it than anything, and a big Schwarber home run could send it in that direction. 

Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies: -1.5 (+140)