The Arizona Diamondbacks will travel to the Midwest to take on the St. Louis Cardinals in the opener of a three-game series. The Cardinals have not lived up to the preseason expectations that many held for them, while the Diamondbacks have been one of the worst teams in the MLB all year and will be sellers ahead of the trade deadline. While both of these teams have struggled, I still expect this to be a good ball game. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Diamondbacks-Cardinals prediction and pick.
Before that, let's see what the lines are for Monday's game.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Cardinals Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+152)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-165)
Over 8.5 runs (-110)
Under 8.5 runs (-110)
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
Despite an absolutely abysmal road record, there's hope for the Diamondbacks in this game. Most of this hope stems from the opposing starting pitcher.
Wade LeBlanc is set to take the mound for St. Louis, a fact that should bring a smile to the Arizona hitters. LeBlanc has been downright awful in his shortened year. He has only pitched in four games for St. Louis this season, performing poorly in all but one.
LeBlanc is also primarily utilized in relief, meaning that the best the Cardinals can hope for is three innings pitched from him. The St. Louis bullpen has been solid, but bullpen games are always more volatile than normal games, allowing for a bigger chance of an upset.
Although the back end of the Cardinals' bullpen has been strong, not all of their relievers are so reliable. The Diamondbacks will have a chance to pick on some weak relief arms early in the game, as they won't get the best of the pen until late. Besides the Cardinals' top three relievers, no one else in their bullpen owns an ERA below 4.00. Arizona should be able to exploit this for some early runs.
Another encouraging fact is that Arizona is significantly better against left-handed pitching, giving them a better chance to tag LeBlanc while he's still in the game.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
Even though it has been a disappointing season for the Cardinals, they remain a respectable baseball team.
The same can hardly be said for the Diamondbacks, who just recently set a new MLB record by losing 24 straight road games. Arizona managed to snap that undesirable streak last week, but that doesn't exactly solve all of the problems on the road.
The Diamondbacks notch fewer hits and runs on the road, all while walking more batters and striking out fewer batters when away from home.
More good news for the Cardinals comes in the form of Arizona's starting pitcher. Jake Faria will make his first start of the 2021 season after recently being called up from Triple-A. Faria has made three appearances as a reliever this season, pitching poorly in his lone appearance that lasted more than an inning. A bullpen game is not what the doctor ordered for Arizona, and St. Louis should take advantage.
The Cardinals face one of the worst bullpens in baseball, with only two Arizona relievers owning an ERA lower than 4.00. St. Louis is also a better offensive team at home, averaging more hits and more walks than on the road. Their bats have been quiet lately, but this is the perfect opportunity to get back into the swing of things.
Final Diamondbacks-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
The Diamondbacks' pitching situation is downright horrendous, making it nearly impossible to pick them with confidence. The St. Louis pitching situation is only slightly better, but it is better. The over is an acceptable play here, but I'm taking the Cardinals. Arizona is terrible on the road and a bullpen game is on the docket. St. Louis should win easily barring a complete meltdown.
FINAL PICK: St. Louis Cardinals ML (-165)
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