The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the San Diego Padres. Check out our MLB odds series for our Diamondbacks Padres prediction and pick.
Merrill Kelly goes to the rubber for the Diamondbacks, while Mike Clevinger gets the call for the Padres.
Merrill Kelly gave up five runs in six innings against the Reds on June 13, pushing his ERA up to 3.68. In his subsequent five starts, he has lowered his ERA to 3.36. He had one rocky outing in that group of five starts, a six-inning, four-run game against the Tigers on June 24. In the other four starts from that collection of games, Kelly has been outstanding. In those four starts, he has pitched 27 1/3 innings and allowed just six runs, which is roughly an ERA of two runs (actually slightly lower). Kelly is in good form, showing that his 1.27 ERA from the month of April was no fluke. He is having a strong season for Arizona.
Mike Clevinger has a 3.79 ERA. His ERA has been under three runs after only one of his starts this season. His ERA was in the three-run range for much of the spring, but after he threw six scoreless innings against these same Diamondbacks on June 29, his ERA for the year fell to 2.79. It didn’t last long.
Clevinger’s ERA rose back above the three-run mark in his next outing against the Seattle Mariners, and a similarly difficult day at the office a few days later against the Colorado Rockies pushed his ERA up to where it is now. His ERA has gone up one whole run in his last two starts, which have encompassed 11 1/3 innings pitched. Clevinger has given up eight runs in those 11 1/3 innings. Maybe the Diamondbacks — whom he dominated on June 29 — will be a get-well tonic for Clevinger in this game.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Diamondbacks-Padres MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Padres Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-162)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+134)
Over: 7 (-122)
Under: 7 (+100)
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Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
The Diamondbacks have the better pitcher in this matchup. Merrill Kelly had a very rough month of May, but for most of this season — April, June, July — he has been well above average and given the D-Backs a huge boost. Kelly is at a point in the 2022 season where he is expected to go at least six innings and allow only two or three runs if that. Mike Clevinger hasn’t attained the same level of consistency, so Arizona should be very confident as it takes the field in this game. Merrill Kelly inspires trust and belief, and he keeps proving that he is worthy of high expectations in Arizona.
Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Padres have won 17 of their last 22 against the Diamondbacks at Petco Park. San Diego is a beautiful city with gorgeous, consistent weather, but it is a nightmare for the Arizona ballclub, which blew a three-run lead on Saturday night and has to wonder what it will ever take to solve the riddle of Petco. Mike Clevinger looked very comfortable against the D-Backs when he pitched against them a few weeks ago. Even though he has not had a great season to this point, the matchup versus Arizona might be just what Clevinger needs to get back on track and give his team a win before the All-Star break. The Padres have wobbled at times, especially against the Rockies, but if they win this game, they will lead by at least three — possibly four — games in the race for the National League’s second wild card berth.
Final Diamondbacks-Padres Prediction & Pick
The pitching matchup does lean to Arizona, but the Padres own the D-Backs in San Diego. They showed it Saturday night, and they’re likely to show it again.
Final Diamondbacks-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5