The Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins will square off in a pivotal AL Central matchup this weekend, beginning with a Friday night matchup. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Guardians-Twins prediction and pick, laid out below.
Cleveland is clinging to the first-place spot in the AL Central with a 70-65 record. The club has struggled lately, with a 3-7 record in their last ten, and has seen their grip on the division begin to loosen. This may be the biggest series of the season so far for the team.
Minnesota escaped New York on a high note, taking the final game of a four-game series to bring their record to 69-67. Minnesota sits at one and a half games behind these same Cleveland Guardians for the top spot in the AL Central. Home is where the heart is for this team, with a 40-29 record playing in their home ballpark.
Here are the Guardians-Twins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Twins Odds
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+168)
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-205)
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Cleveland will send Cal Quantrill to the mound in this one. Quantrill is 11-5 with a 3.55 ERA in 152 innings this season. Quantrill has walked just 6.7% of the batters he has faced this season while registering a 32.1% chase rate, the highest of his career, and ranking in the 79th percentile. The right-hander has been great in his recent work, with a 2.41 ERA in the last seven starts he has made.
Cleveland's bullpen ranks fourth in the league with a 3.10 ERA, striking out 482 batters in 449.1 innings. Sidearm slinger Nick Sandlin has registered a 2.21 ERA in 38 appearances but has pitched to a sparkling 0.64 ERA in his last 14 innings, striking out 14 batters. Trevor Stephan owns a 2.53 ERA with 69 strikeouts in 53.1 innings. Electric setup man James Karinchak has been lights out since his return from injury, with a 1.01 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 26.2 innings. In an astonishing feat, Karinchak has not allowed a run, earned or unearned in 23 straight appearances. Closer Emmanuel Clase is the final cog in this dominant bullpen, with a 1.39 ERA and 31 saves in 62 appearances.
Cleveland's offense is led by third baseman Jose Ramirez, enjoying another dominant season. Ramirez leads the team with 39 doubles, 26 home runs, 108 RBI, and 53 walks. Ramirez has struck out just 11.2% of the time, which ranks in the 98th percentile. Josh Naylor has hit 17 home runs and 19 doubles, stealing five bases without being caught. Andres Gimenez is the third Guardian with double-digit home runs, hitting 15, adding 23 doubles, and stealing 17 bases to lead the team. Gimenez also leads the team with a .305 batting average. Rookie Steven Kwan has a .289 batting average, walking more than he has struck out. In just 64 games, rookie Oscar Gonzalez is hitting .286 with 24 doubles. Cleveland is the last team in the league with less than 1,000 strikeouts and is tied for sixth with 87 stolen bases.
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota will task Dylan Bundy with the start in the series opener. Bundy has started 24 games, with a 4.34 ERA in 118.1 innings. The veteran righty has walked just five percent of his hitters, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Batters are hitting just .227 against Bundy's slider, a pitch he throws roughly a quarter of the time.
Minnesota's bullpen ranks 16th in the league with a 3.88 ERA. Jhoan Duran has been the star of the group, with a 1.76 ERA and 78 strikeouts in 61.1 innings. Duran averages 100.7 mph on his fastball, but it is the curveball that dominates opponents. The curveball has held batters to a .114 batting average. Griffin Jax has improved greatly since his rough 2021, pitching to a 3.39 ERA with 71 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. Jax is throwing nearly three mph harder on average, raising his strikeout rate over ten percent to 28.2 percent.
Carlos Correa, Minnesota's star offseason pickup, has belted 18 home runs and is second with a .351 on-base percentage. Luis Arraez again has impressed, with a .314 batting average, leading the team with 25 doubles, a .377 on-base percentage, and more walks than strikeouts. Gio Urshela has hit 23 doubles, adding 11 home runs. Jorge Polanco has hit 16 home runs, leading the team with 64 walks. Rookie Jose Miranda has hit 14 home runs and 18 doubles, impressing in his first year with the club. Gary Sanchez has improved his defense since leaving New York and continued to hit for power, with 14 home runs and 21 doubles. Minnesota is twelfth in the league with 158 home runs.
Final Guardians-Twins Prediction & Pick
Both teams have a ton to play for in this one, but give Cleveland the nod here.
Final Guardians-Twins Prediction & Pick: Cleveland -1.5 (+168), under 7.5 (-105)
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