The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians will finish their weekend series with a Sunday afternoon matchup in Cleveland. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Mariners-Guardians prediction and pick, laid out below.
Seattle is 75-58, a distant second behind the Houston Astros in the AL West, and second place in the AL Wild Card race. The Mariners have won six games in a row, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. Seattle is in a position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
Cleveland has been in a funk of late, losing its last four games, but remain first place in the AL Central at 68-63. The Guardians have turned it on this summer, and catapulted themselves into first place. The Minnesota Twins are hot on their trails though, trailing by only one game in the standings.
Here are the Mariners-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Guardians Odds
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+126)
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-152)
Over: 7.5 (-112)
Under: 7.5 (-108)
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
Seattle ranks fourth in the league with 480 walks, and 10th with 155 home runs.
Eugenio Suarez leads the team with 25 home runs, 23 doubles and 76 RBIs, ranking second with 67 walks. Rookie Julio Rodriguez has been unbelievable, earning an expensive contract extension while hitting .265 with 22 home runs and 23 stolen bases. Rodriguez has also been worth seven outs above average in center field and ranks in the 97th percentile in sprint speed. In addition, Rodriguez has been one of the more consistent hard contact generators in baseball, ranking in the 90th percentile or above in barrel percentage, average exit velocity and maximum exit velocity.
Jesse Winker, a key offseason pickup, leads the team with 74 walks, adding 13 home runs and 12 doubles. Catcher Cal Raleigh has belted 21 home runs in addition to great defense. First time All-Star Ty France has hit .385 in his last seven games with four home runs, matching his career high of 18 home runs, and adding 20 doubles.
George Kirby, the rookie sensation, will take the mound for Seattle this afternoon. Kirby has gone 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA in his 19 starts, striking out 107 in 102.2 innings. Kirby throws nearly 50% fastballs, and batters have hit just .211 against the pitch. Even more impressive, Kirby has walked just 3.3% of the batters he has faced, ranking in the 99th percentile league-wide, while striking out 24.9% of batters faced.
Seattle has an excellent bullpen, ranking seventh with a 3.31 ERA, striking out 470 in 442.2 innings. Erik Swanson has impressed, with a 0.84 ERA in 45 appearances, striking out 54 in 43 innings. Closer Paul Sewald has pitched to a 2.47 ERA in 55 appearances, thanks in part to a revamped repertoire. Andres Munoz owns one of the most devastating fastballs in baseball, striking out 84 batters in 54 innings with a 2.83 ERA.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Cal Quantrill will get the ball in this one, bringing a 3.50 ERA in 149 innings. Quantrill has only struck out 98 batters, but is successful at keeping them off the basepaths, allowing just 135 hits and walking only 6.7% of opponents The changeup and curveball have been great for Quantrill, although he only throws them about 15% of the time. Batters have combined to hit below .200 against those offerings.
Cleveland's bullpen has been bolstered by the return of James Karinchak, who has a 1.13 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 24 innings since coming back from his injury. After falling victim to the long ball last season, Karinchak has not allowed a home run this season. Trevor Stephan has pitched to a 2.28 ERA in 51.1 innings with 68 strikeouts. Nick Sandlin owns a 2.02 ERA in 37 appearances, holding batters to a .169 batting average. Closer Emmanuel Clase has been out of this world, with a 1.13 ERA and 30 saves in 55.2 innings, striking out 58.
Cleveland's offense this season has been led by Jose Ramirez, pacing the team with 26 home runs, 106 RBIs and 39 doubles, and ranking third with 14 stolen bases and a .280 batting average. Most impressive is that Ramirez does not have to sell out to generate power, as he has struck out just 58 times (10.6% rate) while walking 51 times (9.3% rate). Andres Gimenez leads the team with a .302 batting average, is tied for the lead with 15 stolen bases and has added 15 home runs. Josh Naylor is second on the team with 16 home runs. Rookie Steven Kwan has done nothing but hit, batting .295, with 21 doubles, 12 stolen bases and more walks than strikeouts.
Cleveland has the lowest total strikeouts in the league, punching out just 905 times.
Final Mariners-Guardians Prediction & Pick
This one should be a great matchup. Let's ride the hot hand.
Final Mariners-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Seattle -1.5 (+126), under 7.5 (-108)
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