The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies will open a crucial series at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Nationals-Phillies prediction and pick.
These teams are struggling and lucky to still be alive in a weak National League East. Philadelphia is in second place in the division at 49-49, while Washington is eight games back at 45-53. The series should pose an opportunity for one of these clubs to slowly climb back into contention with two months left in the regular season.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Nationals-Phillies odds.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Phillies Odds
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Washington Nationals +1.5 (-183)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+163)
Over 9.5 Runs (-110)
Under 9.5 Runs (-110)
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
The Nationals have been playing some of the worst baseball of their season over the past couple of weeks. The Nationals are 1-4 over their last five games and just got swept by the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend. This is certainly a low point in their season, and the Nats can kiss their season goodbye if they can't start making a move in this series.
Washington is struggling in large part thanks to a 18-28 road record. The Nats have lost each of their last seven road games and now have a -0.48 average road run differential, allowing over five runs per game. The one bright spot is that they've won four of their last six games against the Phillies coming in.
The Nationals will turn to right-hander Joe Ross for the series opener. Ross has been solid for Washington this season with a 5-8 record and 4.02 ERA through 16 starts. The veteran starter has been very effective lately with a 2.86 ERA over his last seven starts. He is returning from a short stint on the injured list, with his last start coming on July 4 against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies have been the definition of mediocrity as they're currently .500 on the season, going 29-19 at home and 20-30 on the road. Luckily for Philadelphia, this series is being played at home. The Phillies are currently four games back of the Mets in the division with a solid opportunity to gain ground this week.
The Phillies have continued their success at home with wins in four of their last six games at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia's bullpen has been the biggest weakness this season, which explains the -0.08 average run differential in home games. The Phillies have to acquire relievers at the deadline, and they are a threat to blow any lead against any team until they do.
Philadelphia will turn to right-hander Spencer Howard for the series opener. Howard has struggled this season with a 0-2 record and 5.11 ERA through 10 appearances and six starts. The 24-year-old is one of the Phillies' top prospects and will almost certainly improve with more and more experience. He is coming off a solid one-hit performance through three innings against the New York Yankees in his last start.
Final Nationals-Phillies Prediction & Pick
In a game that features two mediocre teams at best, I don't expect many runs to be put on the board. Joe Ross has been effective for Washington, and the Phillies could send out just about anyone to neutralize this Nats lineup right now. These clubs have played in low-scoring games lately, as the under has hit in six of their last eight head-to-head matchups. I expect Philadelphia to win, but I believe that there is more value on the high total.
FINAL PICK: Under 9.5 Runs (-110)
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