The Nationals make the trip to St. Louis to face the Cardinals! These two teams have had similar seasons due to both struggling to find consistency. The Cardinals are the better team and have a path to the wildcard, while the Nationals do not. Our MLB odds series has our Nationals-Cardinals prediction, odds, and pick for Friday.
Nationals-Cardinals Projected Starters
MacKenzie Gore vs. Sonny Gray
MacKenzie Gore (6-8) with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched two innings and gave up three runs on two hits with four walks and two strikeouts in a Nationals win.
2024 Road Splits: (2-4) 3.86 ERA
Sonny Gray (10-6) with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched seven innings and gave up five runs on eight hits with zero walks and 10 strikeouts in a Cardinals win.
2024 Home Splits: (6-4) 2.14 ERA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Cardinals Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-152)
Moneyline: +140
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+126)
Moneyline: -166
Over: 7.5 (-108)
Under: 7.5 (-112)
How to Watch Nationals vs. Cardinals
Time: 8:15 pm ET
TV: Bally Sports Midwest / MASN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Nationals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Nationals have struggled this season as a team. They sit with a 47-56 record currently. They enter this series losing two straight. They are in the bottom half of the MLB in both pitching and behind the plate which is a big factor in why they have struggled with consistency. Jesse Winker, CJ Abrams, Joey Meneses, and Luis Garcia Jr. have stood out for an offense that has struggled this season in the capital. Trevor Williams, MacKenzie Gore, and Jake Irvin have all been solid up to this point on the mound and have been the best players pitching-wise. The Nationals have talent but have struggled to put it together this season.
The Nationals are starting MacKenzie Gore on the mound and he has a 6-8 record, a 4.20 ERA, and a 1.46 WHIP. Through 100.2 innings, Parker has allowed 56 runs on 106 hits with 41 walks and 118 strikeouts. The Nationals are 9-11 in the 20 games he has started this season. Gore has been solid at best on the mound this year, but he needs to find more consistency. He gets an interesting matchup against the Cardinals and their offense because they have been average behind the plate, having good and bad games.
The offense for the Nationals has struggled this season. They are 19th in the MLB in team batting average at .239 after having a team batting average of .254 one season ago. CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jesse Winker stand out and lead the way in most batting categories. Abrams leads in home runs at 15, in RBI at 49, in total hits at 98. Then, Garcia Jr. leads in batting average at .275 and Winker leads in OBP at .374. They get a difficult matchup against Sonny Gray who has been solid for the Cardinals in his own right for a pitching staff that has been average at best.
Why The Cardinals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Cardinals have been inconsistent this season, but they still have a winning record of 53-49. The Cardinals have been below average with their bats and just outside the top 10 in pitching this season. Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Willson Contreras have at least tried to stand out on a bad offense. On the mound, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Sonny Gray have been solid for a unit that has struggled this season. The Cardinals have a path to the wildcard and need to keep winning to stay in contention.
The Cardinals are starting Sonny Gray on the mound, where he has a 10-6 record, a 3.54 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP up to this point in the season. Through 106.2 innings, he has allowed 50 runs on 89 hits with 24 walks and 131 strikeouts. In his 18 appearances this season, the Cardinals have gone 12-6. Gray has been a huge bright spot for the Cardinals this season. He has a favorable matchup against the Nationals and how inconsistent they have been behind the plate.
The offense for the Cardinals has jumped around this season. They are 14th in team batting average at .245 after finishing last season with a .250 batting average by comparison. Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, and Brendan Donovan lead the Cardinals in most batting categories. Burleson leads in batting average at .289 and in RBI at 60. Donovan leads in OBP at .334 and in total hits at 101. Finally, Gorman leads in home runs at 19. This offense has been inconsistent all year even though they are playing better now. This should be an interesting matchup because Gore has been erratic in his own right for the Nationals this year.
Final Nationals-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
These two teams are very similar numbers-wise. The offenses are average and the difference between the two is marginal even with the Cardinals being slightly better. The matchup between Gore and Gray will decide this game. Gray is better and has been better all season, but Gore should help keep this game close. Expect the Nationals to cover on the road even if the Cardinals win outright thanks to Gore.
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Final Nationals-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-152)
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