MLB odds: Padres vs. Giants prediction, odds, pick, and more – 9/14/2021
The San Francisco Giants look to continue their eight-game winning streak on Tuesday night as they continue their series against the San Diego Padres. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Giants prediction and pick.
San Francisco currently stands at 94-50 and is 46-23 at home. If you put $100 on every single Giants game so far this season, you’d be up $3,226 on the moneyline.
San Diego currently stands at 74-69 and is 30-38 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Padres game so far this season, you’d be down $1,946 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Padres-Giants odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Giants Odds
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San Diego Padres ML (+160)
San Francisco Giants ML (-170)
Over 9 Runs (-110)
Under 9 Runs (-110)
Why The Padres Could Win This Game
The Padres will send Jake Arrieta to the mound tonight looking to stop a four game skid.
There’s no defending how bad Arrieta has been this season, but the Padres have a ray of hope from Arrieta’s last outing. Against an impressive Houston Astros lineup, Arrieta got through five innings and only allowed three earned runs.
No, this isn’t an excellent outing. But it’s enough to keep the Padres in the game, and allow the bullpen with the third lowest ERA in the league to do some damage control and perhaps eke out a win.
Additionally, Jake Arrieta actually has a pretty solid history against the current San Francisco roster. Of the four Giants bats in the lineup that have faced Arrieta nine or more times, none are hitting above .250 against the former ace. Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, and Wilmer Flores are a combined 9-48 against Arrieta in their careers.
The fact remains that the Padres aren’t winning this game if their bats don’t do some significant damage Tuesday night. Thankfully for Padres bettors, their offense has proven capable of getting to Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani.
San Diego has faced DeSclafani three times this season and won two out of three matchups. In 16.1 innings against the Padres, DeSclafani has allowed seven earned runs and six walks.
The Padres have drawn the fourth most walks in the league, and they’ll need that patience tonight to have any chance against DeSclafani judging by the way they’re swinging the bat lately.
Why The Giants Could Win This Game
After shelling Yu Darvish Monday night, the Giants have a much easier opponent in the form of Jake Arrieta on Tuesday evening.
Long story short, Jake Arrieta has had a horrendous year. Through 22 starts, he has amassed an ERA of 7.05. Despite pitching five innings or less in 18 of these 22 starts, Arrieta hasn’t had a single scoreless outing all season.
Every area that is a weakness for Arrieta is a strength for this Giants lineup. Arrieta’s HR/9 rate is an absurd 2.19, and the Giants have hit the second most homers in the major leagues. His BB/9 is 3.90, and San Francisco has drawn the second most free-passes in the majors.
So what happens when a pitcher who puts a ton of guys on base and allows home runs at abnormal rate faces a lineup that has displayed extreme patience and pop? Fireworks at Oracle Park. Expect the Giants to score plenty against Arrieta tonight.
Anthony DeSclafani will take the mound for the NL West front-runners tonight, and he’s been a polar opposite of the opposing starter.
DeSclafani has given the Giants five or more innings in 19 of his 27 starts, and currently holds an ERA of 3.33. The righty has given his team a chance to win in nearly every single one of his starts. In 24 of his 27 outings, he’s allowed three earned runs or less.
This consistency has served the Giants well, as they’ve gone 18-9 when DeSclafani takes the mound, and 2-1 when he starts against San Diego.
Considering the Padres have scored a grand total of five runs in their last four outings, the Giants bullpen has the lowest ERA in baseball, and DeSclafani is rarely beaten up on the mound, it looks like it’ll be another long night for the Friars.
Final Padres-Giants Prediction & Pick
All of the momentum and nearly every statistic are in the Giants’ favor tonight. San Francisco has a massive edge on the mound, a slight edge in the bullpen, and a significant edge at the plate. Arrieta has quite literally been the worst starter in the league this year, and the Giants bats are red hot. On the flip side, the Padres bats are ice cold, and DeSclafani has been consistently solid all year. This is an easy call. Back the Giants to win their ninth straight game tonight.
FINAL PADRES-GIANTS PREDICTION & PICK: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS ML (-170)