The San Diego Padres will attempt to earn a split as they finish off the four-game series with the Colorado Rockies on Thursday at Coors Field. It’s time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Padres-Rockies prediction and pick.
The Rockies rallied from behind to defeat the Padres 10-6 on Wednesday. San Diego jumped early when Jake Cronenworth slammed a solo home run to right field. It was his ninth in 2022, giving the Padres a 1-0 lead. The Rockies trailed 3-0 when they rallied in the fifth inning to tie it, only to surrender three runs in the sixth. It set up their next comeback in the bottom half of the sixth when Jose Iglesias came up to bet with two runners on. Then, Iglesias clobbered a three-run bomb to left-center field, making it a 6-6 game.
The Rockies had more in the tank and emptied it in the seventh inning. Sam Hilliard clipped an RBI single, giving the Rockies the 7-6 lead. Then, Iglesias produced an RBI single to drive in two runners. Iglesias finished with six RBIs.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Rockies odds:
MLB odds: Padres-Rockies Odds
Padres: -1.5 (+106)
Rockies: +1.5 (-128)
Over: 11.5 (-105)
Under: 11.5 (-115)
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Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Padres will go with Blake Snell on the hill. Snell is 1-5 with a 4.66 ERA. The former Cy Young winner continues to struggle, but had a great start in his last outing, allowing one earned run on three hits with 11 strikeouts through six innings. Snell is 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in six starts since June 1. Additionally, he struggled in his only start against the Rockies this season, going only 4 2/3 innings while allowing five runs (four earned) on five hits with five strikeouts and four walks. Snell is 2-1 with a 3.89 ERA in seven starts against the Rockies. Alternatively, he is 1-1 with a 6.50 ERA in four starts at Coors Field.
Manny Machado remains their biggest weapon with Fernando Tatis Jr. recovering from injury. Machado is batting .304 with 15 home runs, 51 RBIs, and 54 runs scored through 79 games. However, he is 3 for 14 in this series and has batted .,256 with three home runs in 10 games against the Rockies. Machado is batting .261 with two home runs, four RBIs, and five runs scored in six games at Coors Field, where the Padres are 1-5. Additionally, Machado is batting .292 with seven home runs, 30 R$BIs, and 30 runs scored over 39 games at Coors Field in his career.
The Padres need a better performance from their bullpen. San Diego has the third-worst bullpen ERA over a 10-game period, at 5.26. Their relievers must get the job done late in the game and prevent Colorado from teeing off.
The Padres will cover the spread if they can get a great game out of Snell. They need Snell to go at least six innings and hold the Rockies to three or fewer runs. Likewise, they need their bullpen to get the job done and keep close games close, or protect tight leads. Subsequently, they also need Manny Machado to do his part and execute on opportunities.
Why The Rockies Could Cover The Spread
The Rockies will go with Kyle Freeland on the mound. Freeland is 4-7 with a 4.70 ERA. Also, he is 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA in seven starts since June 1. Freeland has faced the Padres twice this season with moderate success. He is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA over two starts. Likewise, Freeland tossed seven innings in the start at Coors Field, allowing four earned runs on eight hits, including a home run. He is 5-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 17 appearances (15 starts) against the Padres in his career. Additionally, he is 3-1 with a 4.61 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts) against the Padres at home.
CJ Cron is their best weapon. Cron is batting .294 with 20 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 50 runs scored over 86 games in 2022. Moreover, he has dominated the Padres, where he is batting .412 with three home runs, 10 RBIs, and eight runs in nine games against the Padres. Cron has done well at Coors, batting .444 (8 for 18) with three home runs, nine RBIs, and six runs scored over five games. The one thing to keep an eye on is the status of his wrist. Cron pinch-hit in last night’s game and missed Tuesday’s game so it might play a factor.
The Rockies will cover the spread if Freeland can give them a quality start and the offense keeps humming. Cron is an essential weapon in their arsenal and enjoys facing the Padres.
Final Padres-Rockies Prediction & Pick
The Rockies have dominated the Padres at Coors Field. Additionally, the pitcher going for the Padres does not instill the best confidence. The Rockies do not have the best pitcher going, either. However, the Rockies have covered all three games in this series and swept the Padres last time. They are 6 for 6 in covering the spread against the Padres. Until the Padres can prove otherwise, the safe bet is with the Rockies covering.
Final Padres-Rockies Prediction & Pick: Rockies: +1.5 (-128)