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MLB Odds: Red Sox vs. Orioles prediction, odds and pick – 9/11/2022

Red Sox, Orioles

The Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles will play in the final tilt of a three-game series at Camden Yards. It is time to look at our MLB odds series and deliver a Red Sox-Orioles prediction and pick.

The Red Sox and Orioles will play in the final game, each attempting to win the series. So far, the Orioles lead the season series 8-6 and will look to put some distance between them. 

The Sox destroyed the Orioles 17-4 last night in a game that got out of hand fast. Early in the first inning, Rafael Devers blasted a shot to left-center field, clearing the bases for a grand slam. It was his 26th home run of 2022, giving Boston a 4-0 lead out of the gate. Later, the Orioles struck back when Cedric Mullins lifted a breaking ball over the wall in right field, putting “The Birds” on the board. It was his 14th of the season, cutting the deficit to 4-1. 

The Red Sox began to run away in the fourth after an RBI double by Kevin Plawecki and RBI singles by Alex Verdugo, Devers, and Trevor Story, inflating the score to 8-1. Ultimately, the Sox added a two-run blast by Christian Arroyo in the fifth to cement a 10-1 lead and never looked back. 

Rich Hill takes the mound for the Red Sox today. Hill is 6-6 with a 4.79 ERA. Recently, he went four innings while allowing five earned runs on nine hits. September has been bad for Hill, who has not gone over four innings in either start and is 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA. This year, he is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA against the Orioles. 

Kyle Bradish takes the hill for the Orioles. Bradish is 3-5 with a 5.30 ERA. However, he is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in September. Bradish went three innings in his last start, allowing three earned runs on six hits. This year, Bradish is 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA. 

Here are the Red Sox-Orioles MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Red Sox-Orioles Odds

Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-192)

Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+158)

Over: 8.5 (-106)

Under: 8.5 (-114)

Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread

Boston exploded offensively last night. Now, they attempt to do it again. Every hitter contributed in some way, and multiple players had two hits. Moreover, Boston attacked Baltimore’s pitching and put a significant dent in the game. 

Verdugo went 2 for 6 with an RBI, while Xander Bogaerts went 1 for 6 with two runs. Meanwhile, Devers finished 3 for 5 with a home run and five RBIs, while Story went 2 for 5 with three RBIs. Additionally, J.D. Martinez went 2 for 5 with an RBI, and Arroyo finished 2 for 6 with one home run and three RBIs. Finally, Kiki Hernandez completed the night with a 4 for 6 statline with an RBI, while Plawecki finished 2 for 5. Boston likely will not explode for 17 runs again. Conversely, they could still succeed by scoring half the runs they produced last night. 

The Red Sox will cover the spread if Hill can pitch efficiently. Also, Boston covers if the offense can produce 50 percent of the specular offensive performance they displayed last night. 

Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread

The Orioles are 73-66 and have done better than many predicted. Ultimately, their performance last night reminded many of the “old Orioles”. 

Mullins was a star, going 2 for 4. However, Adley Rutschman struggled, going hitless. Ryan Mountcastle went 2 for 4 while the rest of the offense stalled. Significantly, the Baltimore offense is still excelling. The Orioles are averaging four runs per game this month. 

Ultimately, pitching failed them. Jordan Lyles struggled, lasting only 3 2/3 innings while allowing eight earned runs on seven hits. Before the game, there were reports that he had an illness. It could have played a role in his struggles and why he could not get Boston hitters out. Unfortunately, the bullpen did not perform any better, allowing nine earned runs. Pitching is where it all begins, and the Orioles must pitch significantly better today to have a chance to win. 

The Orioles will cover the spread if Bradish pitches well. Additionally, the Orioles must support him with run support to take the pressure off him. The bullpen must wash away last night’s game and return with renewed focus. 

Final Red Sox-Orioles Prediction & Pick

The Red Sox are dead in the water and playing out the season. Conversely, the Orioles have an outside shot at the playoffs as they trail by five games. Time is running out, and Baltimore must display some urgency. Also, they must hone in on what helped them succeed against Boston this year. Neither pitcher is impressive, and it may show again. Expect the Orioles to return the favor and score more runs today, enough to cover the spread. 

Final Red Sox-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+158)