The Detroit Tigers take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Tigers Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Beau Brieske goes to the mound for the Tigers, while Dallas Keuchel gets the start for the Diamondbacks.
Beau Brieske has a 4.07 ERA, but he is improving and evolving for the Tigers this season. Brieske had a 5.25 ERA at the end of May. In June alone, he has posted a 2.28 ERA to reduce his season ERA by more than 1.15 runs. Brieske's improvement in June is based on a reduced walk rate and reduced home-run rate. Brieske, through May, was walking one batter every three and a half innings. In June, that rate is close to one walk every eight innings. It's very similar for home runs. Brieske is reducing a pitcher's two worst enemies. He is clearly on the right track. One other note about his June evolution: Brieske didn't fatten up his stats against weak teams. He pitched strong games against the Yankees and Blue Jays, two of the best hitting teams in the American League. The Tigers have to like the way Brieske is adjusting to the challenges posed by elite hitters.
Dallas Keuchel makes his first start as a Diamondback in this game. He was torn to shreds with the White Sox this season, posting a 7.88 ERA before being released by the team. His last big-league start was on May 26, so he has been away from the bigs for a month. He is obviously familiar with the Tigers, one of the White Sox' American League Central opponents, but familiarity with hitters did not help him at all in 2022. Keuchel gave up 49 hits in 32 innings, allowing 33 runs and getting blasted on a regular basis. Will the change in scenery, plus Chase Field's deep left-center field and right-center field gaps, help him out? He has to pitch better for that to matter, anyway.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Tigers-Diamondbacks MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Tigers-Diamondbacks Odds
Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-196)
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+162)
Over: 9 (-104)
Under: 9 (-118)
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Why The Tigers Could Cover the Spread
The Tigers are loving Phoenix this weekend. They won the first two games of this series and have clearly outpitched the Diamondbacks while getting timely home runs. On Saturday night, it was Kody Clemens who hit a three-run bomb to break a 3-3 tie. Friday, Javy Baez hit a loud home run as part of a resurgence in what has generally been a rough season for him. Baez hitting well has ignited this team. The pitching has held together in Arizona, and the Diamondbacks — who overachieved in April and early May — have come crashing down to earth. The D-Backs were 23-22 on the morning of May 26, exactly one month ago. Since then they are 9-19. They're a mess, and Dallas Keuchel does not figure to give them a lift.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
After playing two bad baseball games this weekend, the D-Backs are due for a bounce-back against Detroit. Arizona isn't a good team right now, but getting swept by the Tigers is an unlikely outcome which would defy the odds. Dallas Keuchel has had a month to retool his game and revise his technique. This could be the fresh start he needs, in which case a light-hitting Detroit team could be thrown off balance by Keuchel's mixture of speeds and spins.
Final Tigers-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
This is a total stay-away game. The Tigers sweeping the D-Backs is unlikely, but so is Dallas Keuchel pitching a good game. You don't have to bet on this one. If you insist on a pick, take the Tigers simply because Keuchel has been so bad this year.
Final Tigers-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Tigers +1.5
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