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The Tampa Bay Rays looked primed to contend for the next decade when they began to re-emerge as a powerhouse in 2018. Alas, it looks like the Rays' World Series contending window is shutting down. Through 60 games in 2024, the Rays remain under .500 with a 29-31 record, and it looks very likely that they'll be a selling team come the trade deadline given how far off they are from the top teams in the AL East (they are 12.5 games behind the New York Yankees).
One of the players who could potentially be on the move is outfielder Randy Arozarena; while Arozarena has the name recognition due to his track record, he has fallen way off in 2024. The Rays left fielder is hitting .163 on the season with an OPS of .573, and overall, he has been a negative for the team as evidenced by his -0.4 WAR on the season (per Fangraphs).
Nonetheless, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, teams will still “line up” in the event that the Rays make Arozarena available in a trade. Teams are betting that Arozarena can return to his production from 2020 to 2023, and that may not be the worst bet in the world.
From 2020 to 2023, Randy Arozarena hit 70 home runs and drove in 276 runs for the Rays; he had a .264 batting average and an .800 OPS during that span. His production at the plate has allowed him to amass 10.7 WAR across his first three and a half seasons in the MLB, making him a safely above average player.
Only 29 years old, there's no reason to expect Arozarena to completely fall off a cliff the way he has so far in 2024. Nonetheless, for the Rays, there is no urgency to trade Arozarena away. Not only is his value in the gutter, he is also under team control for two more season after 2024. While the Rays are pragmatic in their trading approach, dealing away players who are nearing free agency, the Rays may want to wait for Arozarena to pick things up instead of selling low on him.
Randy Arozarena has endured a nightmare 2024 season thus far
Randy Arozarena has been a bit unlucky in 2024; his walk and strikeout rates aren't exactly out of career norms, although his strikeout percentage has increased from the past two seasons, so it's not like he's falling into poor habits on the plate. Moreover, his average exit velocity isn't too far off from where he was in previous seasons. At 90.3 mph, Arozarena's average EV in 2024 is better than his 2021 and 2022 seasons.
However, his hard-hit percentage is down under 40 percent for the first time as a member of the Rays organization; part of it is the increased launch angle of his batted balls. Arozarena has gotten under plenty of pitches thus far in 2024; he is averaging a launch angle of 15.3. Instead of hitting line drives and sharp fly balls, he has flown out softly more often than ever.
In 2024, his fly ball rate has skyrocketed to 46.2 percent; he has never been over 40 percent over the course of a season, so the course of action for the Rays is to make sure that Randy Arozarena has a flatter swing plane to avoid him from getting underneath pitches on nearly half of his at-bats.
All of this has led to worse contact quality, and the baseball gods have not helped him out at all. He has a batting average of .193 on balls in play, and he has never had a season of under .300 BABIP, let alone .200. Nonetheless, this all suggests that the Arozarena's struggles at the plate are fixable. This then justifies teams' interest in him should the Rays make him available for trade.
(All stats used above were taken from Fangraphs.)
Taking a look at the Rays' other potential trade pieces
If the Rays do end up selling (they are currently just 4.5 games back of an AL Wild Card spot), then other contending teams will be circling them like vultures in hopes of acquiring a few of their quality relievers. In particular, Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam, according to Passan, will draw a ton of attention as potential late-game bullpen acquisitions.
Moreover, the Rays have Garrett Cleavinger, a stud lefty relief option with a 1.45 ERA in 24.2 innings, and he could incite a bidding war among teams in dire need of a top-tier southpaw off the pen. Meanwhile, Aaron Civale could also draw interest as a innings-eater who's pitching better than his surface stats may indicate.
Nonetheless, there are still close to two months before the trade deadline. Time is still on the Rays' side as they look to claw their way back into the playoff picture.
