The Minnesota Twins entered the All-Star break 12 games above .500 and 4.5 games behind the first-place Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. If the season ended today, the team would qualify for the playoffs with the second American League Wild Card berth.
The Twins have won 13 of their last 20 games with a hot-hitting infield led by Carlos Correa and just enough pitching to get the job done. But if Minnesota hopes to have a strong second half and make some noise in the postseason, the team needs to add a high-quality starter to the rotation at the trade deadline. And as it turns out, the organization believes the Toronto Blue Jays’ Yusei Kikuchi is the perfect fit, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic.
The Twins are specifically looking for a second-half rental to bolster the rotation and help turn the team into legitimate contenders this season. Minnesota’s starting pitchers are all signed beyond 2024 and the oldest rotation member is 28 years old.
Overall, the Twins starters have pitched well this season. As a group they’re top five in baseball in strikeouts (fourth), K/9 (first) and WHIP (fourth) and they have the 11th most fWAR at the All-Star break. However, the rotation is 15th or worst in MLB when it comes to batting average against (15th), WPA (16th) and ERA (24th).
It’s a solid group led by righty Joe Ryan and rookie Simeon Woods Richardson so far this season. But inconsistency and a lack of depth are real concerns – as is Woods Richardson’s usage. He’s already up to 82 innings pitched this season. While the 23-year-old has been very good, posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.6 WAR in 16 appearances, he could hit a wall at some point in the second half, which would put the Twins in a precarious position without reinforcements. Particularly if Woods Richardson crashes into that wall during a high-leverage situation.
The Twins seek to add rental pitcher at the trade deadline for postseason push
Given that the current rotation is under club control beyond the 2024 season, the Twins are open to stepping out of their comfort zone and adding a rental pitcher at the trade deadline, per The Athletic.
If Minnesota opts for a pitcher on an expiring contract, Kikuchi would be one of the best options. The former All-Star is in the last year of a three-year, $36 million contract. He’s earning $10 million this season but, should Minnesota acquire the veteran lefty, they’d only be on the hook for approximately $3 million of that salary before Kikuchi hits free agency in 2025.
The timing and financial commitment are ideal for the Twins, as the organization is unlikely to take on a massive contract for a rental player or saddle themselves with a pricey long-term deal. Other Blue Jays' starters that could be on the market, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt, are each making $22 million this season and still have additional years remaining on their contracts.
The 33-year-old Kikuchi could stabilize the Twins' rotation in the second half and would give the team a solid starting option in the postseason. A sorely needed commodity given the unknowns surrounding much of the pitching staff.
But while Kikuchi might be a tier below the Chicago White Sox’s Garrett Crochet or the Detroit Tigers’ Jack Flaherty on contending teams’ wish lists, he’s still likely to draw a great deal of interest. Nearly every team buying at this year’s trade deadline is looking to bolster their rotation. Of course, the list of impact starters expected to be available come July 30 is limited so there won’t be enough to go around, making it a sellers’ market. Will the Twins engage in a bidding war and ultimately offer up a package of prospects sufficient to land Kikuchi?
The team has a very good chance of making the postseason this year. Fangraphs puts the Twins’ chance of clinching a playoff berth at 81.6 percent. With an opportunity to compete for a title this season, Minnesota should be willing to sacrifice some of the farm system to improve the team. Without an upgrade at the trade deadline, the Twins have little chance of making a deep playoff run.
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