There's no secret that 2024 has been a down year for the Toronto Blue Jays. Being under .500 this late into the season was not what the top brass of the franchise expected, and at 58-66, their playoff odds sit at 0.1 percent, according to Fangraphs. Simply put, this season has long been a lost one for Toronto, and wholesale changes may be coming to facilitate a bounce-back and ensure that the team is set up more ideally for a sustainable future of contention.
Thus, the Blue Jays might end up being one of the most active players on the trade market come this offseason. After deciding not to hold a major fire sale on or before the July 30 deadline, perhaps the Blue Jays revisit the idea of dealing away some of their players who are approaching free agency — including two of their most recognizable stars, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
However, it appears as though the Blue Jays are more inclined to trade Bichette over Guerrero, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale reported that they are “expected to entertain trade offers” for the 26-year-old shortstop while they are going go try and entice Guerrero to sign a new contract with the team before he reaches free agency at the conclusion of the 2025 campaign.
Both Bichette and Guerrero have come to define this current era of Blue Jays baseball, for better or for worse. The two have had their fair share of ups and downs as well, but the Blue Jays' reasoning for wanting to keep Guerrero over Bichette is clear.
Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s contrasting 2024 seasons for the Blue Jays
2024 has been a true nightmare for Bo Bichette. At 26 years of age, one would think that he should be right in his prime — a player who has averaged 4.6 WAR (per Fangraphs) over the past three seasons. However, his production has tanked considerably. Prior to landing on the injured list following a July 19 loss to the Detroit Tigers, Bichette has been one of the worst-performing regulars in all of baseball, hitting for a horrid slash line of .222/.275/.320.
Of course, a bounce-back is to be expected from Bichette. Perhaps a clean bill of health is all he needs to go back to being at his best. This downturn in performance could also open up an opportunity for the Blue Jays to keep the 26-year-old shortstop for a bargain price, although Bichette and his camp will know better than to accept a lowball offer.
On the other hand, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has returned to being one of the most-feared hitters in the entire MLB. His production at the plate has been trending down since he burst onto the scene with a 48-home run, 111-RBI season in 2021, with his power numbers steeply declining. Last year, he hit “just” 56 extra-base hits in 682 plate appearances — solid numbers, but a far cry from what he is capable of.
This year, he has already tallied 59 total extra-base hits, and his slugging numbers are trending upwards. Only 25 years of age, Guerrero is looking poised to string together a few seasons worth around 4-5 WAR, making him one of the most valuable sluggers in the MLB. His name recognition is also worth its weight in gold for the Blue Jays.
The shortstop position may be more difficult to fill, which makes Bichette's upside all the more enticing. But the Blue Jays are rightfully concerned about Bichette amid his horrid 2024 campaign, making them question whether or not he'll be worth the inevitably huge contract he'll demand.
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