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The 2019 MLB Trade Deadline is one week from Wednesday, and the “Hot Stove” is certainly heating up. Contenders around the league are gauging the value of various players in the hopes that one or two additions might help them reach the playoffs.
One of the most underrated aspects of the upcoming deadline, however, is that it will be the last opportunity for teams to trade or acquire assets. The August 31 waiver deadline has been nixed for this year, and plenty of front offices are likely to be in scramble mode in the next week.
The impact of not having a waiver deadline is not yet known, but it is sure to change the way in which teams prioritize certain needs moving forward.
Consider that the Houston Astros acquired Justin Verlander at the waiver deadline in 2017, then went on to win the World Series. But what if Houston could not rely on that deadline? Would they have made an earlier, more aggressive move for Verlander prior to the end of July?
We will never know the answer to that question, but we can attempt to dissect how the teams in contention will act at the upcoming deadline.
While organizations such as the Dodgers and Nationals (bullpen arm) or the Astros and Yankees (starting pitcher) really only have a single glaring hole, a few teams in the playoff mix are going to have to weigh multiple needs as they look to make a push for the postseason.
So let's break it down:
Needs: Pitching…starting and relief
Despite leading the league in terms of runs scored, the Red Sox are still trying to climb out of third place in the American League East.
Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers have enjoyed tremendous seasons, while breakout campaigns from guys like Christian Vazquez have made up for some slight regression from Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi. However, the Red Sox have not gotten enough quality starts out of their rotation, while their bullpen still lacks a reliable closing option.
Boston is hoping that the acquisition of former Baltimore Orioles starter Andrew Cashner will add depth to the rotation, but Cashner has been one of the most volatile pitchers in baseball throughout his career and struggled in his Red Sox debut on Tuesday before giving up a pair of homer against his former club on Sunday.
However, does the starting pitching need supersede Boston's struggles at the back end of the bullpen? Ryan Brasier was recently optioned to Triple-A, and the Red Sox are relying on Nathan Eovaldi to close out games following his recent activation from the Injured List.
The Red Sox really could use another arm in the bullpen. Even aside from the closer role, guys like Matt Barnes and Colten Brewer have struggled to be effective as of late. They are lacking depth, something that they at least are projecting to have in the rotation.
Cashner will have to improve, but the advanced metrics point to optimism with respect to Boston's starters. They should focus on adding at least one or two relief arms.
The question is whether or not Boston will have tradable assets. They have a weak farm system, and may have to give up big-league talent unless they can buy low on relievers like Sam Dyson, Tony Watson or others.
Needs: Pitching (rotation and bullpen) and leadoff hitter
After an offseason that consisted of acquisitions such as Bryce Harper, J.T Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson, many pegged the Phillies as the favorites in the National League East. However, injuries and disappointing performances have resulted in the Phillies barely clinging to a winning record despite having a negative run differential.
Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff have all been exceedingly underwhelming, and the rotation situation has been so dire that the Phillies have signed Drew Smyly and may shift Pivetta to the bullpen.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia's bullpen has been utterly depleted by injury. Seranthony Dominguez may be done for the year, and both Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter are on the Injured List for the foreseeable future. Robertson is due back sometime soon, but he has missed practically the entire season and will need some time to regain comfort and confidence.
As if the pitching woes were not frustrating enough, manager Gabe Kapler has not had an answer at the leadoff spot since McCutchen tore his ACL. Segura and Cesar Hernandez have both struggled mightily, and Scott Kingery has been unsuccessful in his limited action at the top of the order.
Philadelphia really need guys that can get on base ahead of Bryce Harper, especially considering his struggles with the bases empty this season:
Think this is the weirdest Bryce Harper stat of them all:
With the bases empty this is Harper's line:
.155 AVG/.295 OBP/.283 SLG/.578 OPS
With runners on base:
.365 AVG/.454 AVG/.673 SLG/1.127 OPS
He's MVP Harper with runners on base and Andrew Knapp when the bases are empty
— Jack Fritz (@JackFritzWIP) July 15, 2019
However, Harper has been red-hot since the All-Star break, and this is an offense that could kick into high gear at any time, whether or not the leadoff spot continues to be an issue.
The rotation issues are probably the most pertinent, in this case. Smyly is hardly a dependable replacement for Pivetta, and Jake Arrieta is pitching through injury.
At least the Phillies will experiment with Pivetta in the bullpen and get Robertson back soon. But they need to add an impact starting pitcher to really make a run in August and September.
Like the Red Sox, the Phillies have drained a good majority of their prospect pool. That said, general manager Matt Klentak did not make all of those offseason moves just to make the playoffs. Philadelphia should do everything that they can to acquire someone like Mike Minor.
Needs: Bullpen depth and power bat
For a team that frequently uses an “opener” and has generally changed the way that relievers are used in the modern era, the Rays actually have a slightly underwhelming group in the bullpen. Well, that should be clarified.
Entering play on Sunday, Tampa Bay's bullpen ranked third in the majors in terms of fWAR. Guys like Ryne Stanek, Emilio Pagan and Jalen Beeks–the forgotten piece in the Eovaldi deal last summer–have been excellent, and Kevin Cash uses a ton of arms.
Still, Pagan himself has blown seven saves, and Chaz Roe and Jose Alvorado have struggled to seize the opportunity to close games. Tampa Bay could use another late-game reliever in a similar vein to their divisional foe, the Red Sox.
With that being said, it is more likely that the Rays would pursue a power bat in the lineup. Tampa Bay ranked ninth in the American League in runs scored before play began on Sunday, and guys like Ji-Man Choi in particular have failed to add production over the course of the last month.
Tampa Bay is pretty high on guys in their farm system, notably Nate Lowe. But Tampa Bay could look to acquire a rental such as Nicholas Castellanos, who would fit perfectly as a DH given his deficiencies in the outfield.
The Rays might also make inquiries on guys like Hunter Pence, Justin Smoke and Trey Mancini. Regardless, they should add another power bat so as to keep up with the explosive offenses in Boston and New York.
Needs: Impact starter and late-game reliever
Much like some of the other teams on this list, the Brewers need pitching in the rotation and the bullpen.
Brandon Woodruff was an All-Star, and Zach Davies has managed to outperform his peripherals. Chase Anderson has been decent, but he is hardly an innings eater. Gio Gonzalez has not proven to be durable. Meanwhile Jhoulys Chacin has been a nightmare after being the ace in 2018.
Josh Hader has had another fairly dominant year at the back end of the bullpen, but the Brewers have been exposed in the middle innings. Guys like Junior Guerra, Corbin Burnes and Matt Albers struggling to get outs on a consistent basis, and Jeremy Jeffress has not been nearly as good as he was last year.
Milwaukee is experiencing the kind of regression that many analytical models predicted before the season, and they have a negative run differential to show. While the offense has been very mediocre in spite of another incredible year from Christian Yelich, the brunt of the blame must go to the pitching staff.
The question is, which need should the Brewers address? They have discussed bringing marquee closer Will Smith back to Milwaukee, which would give them a formidable tandem of Hader and Smith at the back end. However, the rotation struggles are too much to overlook.
Woodruff is the only guy that can consistently go deep into games, and the Brewers are relying too much on Anderson and Gonzalez to remain healthy. They have a deep enough prospect pool and big-league talent to make a run at a premium starter on the market (though they will abstain from giving up Keston Hiura).
Last season, Milwaukee's bullpen gassed out in October. Although manager Craig Counsell was bold in his usage of relief arms, that simply cannot happen again. The Brewers need another starter–like a Mike Minor–who can fight through adversity and eat innings.
Needs: Left-handed reliever and left-handed crusher
The Cubs are yet another NL Central team with multiple needs. Despite having the second-best run differential in the National League, Chicago is just nine games over .500 after a loss to the San Diego Padres on Sunday.
That said, the Cubs have opened the second half at 7-2, and they have gotten some good starting pitching performances from Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks, especially. With Kris Bryant raking in recent weeks and Willson Contreras set to come off the Injured List, Chicago's offense should get back into high gear.
Still, they could use another bat that can hit left-handed pitching. Addison Russell and David Bote have really struggled in recent weeks, and Kyle Schwarber's OPS is 100 points lower against lefties. The Cubs are reportedly one of the teams interested in Castellanos, who has crushed lefties to the tune of a 1.090 OPS this season.
While adding a run-producer like Castellanos would certainly help the Cubs against teams like the Dodgers (who have elite starting left-handers), Chicago will have just as hard time of a time pitching to the Dodger lineup in the later innings should they fail to add a left-handed reliever.
The Cubs shipped Mike Montgomery off for Matin Maldonaldo after Montgomery failed to adjust to a permanent bullpen role, and they already let Justin Wilson walk as a free agent in the offseason. At present, Kyle Ryan is the only lefty in the bullpen.
How does Theo Epstein expect Joe Maddon to handle a left-heavy Dodger lineup with guys like Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson when he has but one lefty in his bullpen. Not to mention, Ryan has reverse platoon splits.
Chicago's bats are capable of producing runs, but they will not stand a chance in October if they do not add bullpen depth. Guys like Watson or Andrew Chafin may be available, and the Cubs should look to acquire them.
