On paper, the Cleveland Guardians have a roster built for playoff success. With Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan leading the offense and Tanner Bibee at the top of the rotation, they have a chance to be elite. However, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt has had to deal with drama in the latter half of the season. Now, Cleveland's chances at a playoff berth are not looking good.
Last season, Ramirez led the charge for a team that made it all the way to the ALCS. This season, the Guardians still need to make up 1.5 games to catch the Boston Red Sox in the American League Wild Card race. While the odds are against Cleveland, its schedule gives it a chance to make up the ground quickly and sneak into the playoffs as the final Wild Card team in the AL.
In many ways, the Guardians are who they have always been. Cleveland's “pitching factory” is alive and well, spitting out effective pitchers year after year. Ramirez continues to be excellent at the plate and is likely en route to another Top 10 finish in the AL MVP voting. That balance has many fans refusing to count the Guardians out until their season comes to an end.
While the NL may have the better field of playoff teams overall, the top of the AL is a murderer's row of talent. If the Guardians make it into the playoffs at all, they need their stars to rise to the occasion against some of Major League Baseball's top talent. However, there is a lot that could go wrong and come back to haunt Cleveland as soon as Game 1 of the postseason begins.
The Guardians have done a good job dealing with drama in 2025. However, here is their worst-case postseason scenario.
Emmanuel Clase's absence dooms Cleveland's bullpen
Emmanuel Clase's investigation threw a wrench into the Guardians' season. Before the news broke, Cleveland was chugging along, serving as the chief threat to the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. However, all of the attention the team got as the investigation began robbed it of its rhythm. The result is a team fighting with Boston to snatch the last Wild Card spot.
Clase left the team, and Cade Smith stepped into the closer role. Vogt has been happy with what Smith has done since taking over, but there is some doubt as to whether or not it can transfer to the playoffs. The 26-year-old was effective through nine appearances in the 2024 playoffs. He finished with a 1-0 record and an ERA of 3.60, not too bad for his first postseason run.
While Smith may not be the biggest issue for Cleveland, the bullpen around him is shaky at best. Vogt saw Paul Sewald come back from injury and be effective. However, he did not survive the trade deadline in Cleveland.
The Guardians' late-inning pitching has a big dropoff between Hunter Gaddis and the next best setup man. Cleveland's manager has the experience to work around it, but his lack of resources leave him without many options.
The starting rotation crumbles around Tanner Bibee
The Guardians are known for pitching. However, Vogt's team has significantly less playoff experience than any other team he guided to the postseason. Looking at his current starting rotation, Vogt's staff has a combined 20 innings pitched in the playoffs. That number is terrifying for a team looking to make the most of what could be Kwan's final season playing in Cleveland.
While the lack of experience is a tough hurdle to clear, there is reason for optimism. Gavin Williams had the best start the Guardians saw all season and looks ready to join Bibee as the team's top pitchers. Slade Cecconi and Logan Allen have also shown flashes of dominance that could roll into a playoff series. However, the rotation's track record does not bode well for 2025.
Cleveland traded Shane Bieber away at the trade deadline. At the time, the starter was out with injury and was not helping the Guardians win games. Looking back, Vogt and the front office may want that deal back, especially if they draw the Toronto Blue Jays in the postseason. For now, Cleveland has to work with what it has and try to build a competent playoff rotation.
The Guardians have a lot of work to do just to make it into the playoffs. Despite all of the team's positive moments this season, 2025 does not look like their year. Poor pitching will do almost any team in when the postseason begins, no matter how talented the offense is. Unfortunately for Cleveland, it may have to learn that lesson the hard way this fall.
