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The Houston Astros have won the American League West in seven of the last eight seasons. Even after losing their consecutive ALCS appearance streak last year, they are in contention to win the division and the pennant again. But the Seattle Mariners are bucking their head, roaring after the trade deadline to tie the AL West lead. What does Houston have to do to ensure an eighth division title in nine seasons?
The Astros made one of the most significant deals of the MLB trade deadline, bringing Carlos Correa back from the Minnesota Twins. With a massive part of the championship DNA back in the lineup, Houston has a great chance to go deep in the postseason. While there are still questions in the outfield and the bullpen, Correa is an important addition to the club.
They improved the injured left side of the infield, but what else has to be done to ensure the Astros win the AL West?
Yordan Alvarez needs to return to the Astros' lineup
Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez has not played since May 2 with right-hand inflammation. A recent injury update from Chandler Rome of The Athletic indicated that Alvarez took batting practice on the field for the first time on Monday. That is huge for the Houston lineup, which has not gotten great production from the DH spot this season.
Alvarez was not great in the 29 games he did play, with just three homers and 18 RBI. While the offense has been solid this year, they could ramp up a level with Alvarez in the middle. The Mariners have climbed up the AL West because Cal Raleigh has carried their offense, and they picked up reinforcements at the trade deadline.
When Alvarez is healthy, the Astros have one of the elite power bats in the league. But he has not been there this year and he could change the AL West race when he returns.
A third starter must arise
Winning the division is important under the current playoff format, as it could clinch the Astros a spot in the ALDS. They lost in the three-game AL Wild Card Series to the Detroit Tigers last year, so they know how short those sets are. Their pitching, both starting and relief, was solid in the two games against Detroit. But they lost both, in part because of Tarik Skubal's brilliance.
This year, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown have been excellent. Valdez has a 2.97 ERA in 23 starts with a fabulous 11-4 record. Brown put together an AL Cy Young candidacy early, and his season-long numbers are still excellent. A 2.51 ERA is good enough to trust in a playoff series. But who would follow them up in the rotation?
Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are out for the season, and Spencer Arrighetti just returned from injury. If Arrighetti is great down the stretch, they will win the AL West. If not, the Mariners' five-pack of elite starters could chase them down.
The Astros have to end the season hot
This one sounds obvious. Yes, if the Astros win a bunch of games in September, they will win the American League West. That is, in fact, how math works. But the schedule in mid-September is exactly what the Astros need to run through the finish line and win the division.
The Astros' final five series are against, in order, the Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, and Los Angeles Angels. Three of those teams, the Braves, A's, and Angels, are well out of the playoffs. The Rangers are currently fighting for a spot in the AL Wild Card race, but by then, they could be out of the race. And then there are three games against the Mariners, which could decide the division.
The Astros will have to get great pitching, an elite Yordan Alvarez return, and a hot September to win the AL West. But they have a history of doing exactly that late in the season with this core.
