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In a season dominated by pitching, a pair of unlikely hurlers have thrust themselves to the forefront of the AL Cy Young race. Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal and Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase have been the two best pitchers in the American League this year — as the AL Central duo has combined to lead the league in most major pitching stats.
Skubal is currently the favorite thanks to his eye-catching strikeout numbers and consistency as a starter, but can Clase's ninth-inning dominance help him earn a much-deserved Cy Young Award? This is what Emmanuel Clase must do to beat out Tarik Skubal for 2024 AL Cy Young Award.
Clase's near-historic season
Not only has Emmanuel Clase been the best reliever in MLB this year, his 2024 season stands out among the best single-season performances of all-time among relief pitchers. Clase has an 0.58 ERA with a league-leading 39 saves in 42 chances. His 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings are below average, but he makes up for his lack of swing-and-miss stuff with superb control.
The Cleveland right-hander has walked just eight batters in 62.1 innings pitched — 1.2 walks per nine frames. His 4.9 hits allowed per nine innings reflect a pitcher who ranks in the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate with an 0.674 WHIP. Clase does have two losses and three blown saves on the year, but the Guardians closer did not allow an earned run in four of those five appearances.
Where does Emmanuel Clase's season rank among the best years in history by relief pitchers? Blake Treinen finished with an 0.78 ERA and 38 saves in 43 chances with the Oakland Athletics in 2018. He was fifth in the AL Cy Young voting that year. Another A's great — Dennis Eckersley — posted an ERA of 0.61 in 1990, going 48/50 in save opportunities. The Hall-of-Famer won a Cy Young, but it came two years later. Eckersley finished fifth in Cy Young voting in 1990.
The lowest single-season ERA by an MLB player with at least 50 innings pitched was Zach Britton in 2016. The Baltimore Orioles southpaw was a perfect 47/47 in save chances that year with an ERA of 0.54. Yet that historic performance was only good enough for a fourth-place finish in the Cy Young race, as Britton lost out to 22-game winner Rick Porcello of the Red Sox — who had a modest 3.15 earned run average.
A history of Cy Young-winning relievers
Nine relievers have won the Cy Young Award, including Hall-of-Famers Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, and Bruce Sutter. But Eric Gagne is the only closer to win the award in the 21st century.
Gagne had a phenomenal 2003 season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, leading MLB with 55 saves (no blown saves) and a dominant 15 strikeouts per nine innings. Gagne beat out San Francisco Giants starter Jason Schmidt (17-5, 2.34 ERA, 0.953 WHIP, 208 strikeouts) and Mark Prior of the Chicago Cubs (18-6, 2.43 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 245 strikeouts), earning 28 of 32 first-place votes.
Yet since 2003, Zach Britton's and Blake Treinen's aforementioned fantastic years were not even good enough for a top-three finish in the AL Cy Young voting. Mariano Rivera finished second in 2005, and Trevor Hoffman was the runner-up in 2006 — representing the best Cy Young finishes for a closer in the last two decades. Neither Rivera nor Hoffman ever took home the award.
Skubal's phenomenal year
If not for Tarik Skubal, Emmanuel Clase's Cy Young chances would be far greater. Skubal leads qualified American League pitchers with 15 wins (to just four losses, an impressive mark on a struggling Tigers team), a 2.58 ERA, 193 strikeouts, and a 2.58 FIP. The southpaw has a strikeout-t0-walk ratio of nearly 6-to-1, emphasizing his balance between nastiness and control. His 5.4 WAR is also the best among all AL hurlers.
The Detroit lefty has always been a high-ceiling player; this season is the first year he has stayed healthy enough to demonstrate that promise.
Clase's Cy Young path
At this point in the season, there is not much more Emmanuel Clase can do to improve his Cy Young standing. The Guardians have 77 straight wins when leading after eight innings, and the Cleveland closer has not allowed an earned run since the All-Star Break.
Clase's best hope is for Tarik Skubal to slip up. Skubal's Cy Young odds range from -3000 to -6000, with Clase's odds from +1800 to +4000. The Detroit starter has hardly approached anything that could resemble a cold streak. His worst two-start stretch was June 14 and 19, when he allowed four runs in each start across 10.1 innings. The lefty has not allowed more than five runs in an appearance this year.
History has shown that Cy Young voters do not respect relievers anymore. Emmanuel Clase has been dominant this season, but without the elite strikeout numbers, he must rely on Skubal to struggle down the stretch if he wants to be the first reliever to win the Cy Young Award since 2003.
