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Blake Snell chose the perfect time to pitch one of the best seasons of his career; in 2023, Snell won the NL Cy Young Award after putting up a pristine 2.25 ERA in 180.0 innings of work (32 starts). However, Snell isn't the grand prize for teams looking for some top-shelf pitching on the free-agent market. That distinction, now that Shohei Ohtani is off the market, belongs to burgeoning Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is expected to command a contract around the $200 million to $300 million mark in total value from, perhaps, the New York Yankees.
This could be a confusing development to some; after all, why would an established big-leaguer in Snell receive a contract of lower value in free agency than someone who hasn't pitched a single inning in the big leagues? Per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the underlying peripherals, injury concerns, and concerns regarding age-related decline tell the story as to why.
“For starters, Snell turned 31 last week, so he’s significantly older than Yamamoto. Snell also comes with a questionable track record in regards to innings pitched,” Feinsand wrote. “Yamamoto, on the other hand, has averaged more than 185 innings per season since 2021. He has also averaged fewer than two walks per nine innings as compared to Snell’s 4.46 per nine, including an MLB-high 99 walks issued in 2023.”
Blake Snell hasn't pitched in more than 180.2 innings in a single season, and his ginormous walk rate will always be a concern even though he manages to escape the jams he gets himself into more often than not. Snell, being six years older than Yoshinobu Yamamoto, might also experience some age-related decline soon enough.
Meanwhile, Yamamoto has all the makings of being a workhorse, and at 25, teams will expect to get a pitcher who's just entering his prime. For an interested team such as the Yankees, this is exactly what makes Yamamoto such an enticing target, and this may be why Snell may have to wait for Yamamoto to sign before he does.
“Snell is likely to wait until Yamamoto signs before making a move of his own, since the clubs that miss out on Yamamoto might be more willing to pay up for the two-time Cy Young winner,” Feinsand added.
