The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the best teams in baseball, but the news has not been all good. Unfortunately, the Phillies lost Zach Wheeler for the season due to blood clots, which puts a hole in their elite rotation. The Phillies' World Series hopes could be in danger. Moreover, there could be another Phillies playoff collapse. Despite making moves to improve it, there is still one major fatal flaw.
Despite losing their ace, Philadelphia still has +800 odds to win the World Series, according to FanDuel. This gives them the third-best odds to win the title. Overall, there is a lot of optimism in Philadelphia, but history proves that it can all go wrong at the worst possible time.
The Phillies currently lead the National League East and will likely win the divisional title. Yet, there is an uneasiness in the air as the 2025 MLB postseason approaches. This one Phillies' fatal flaw could doom them when they play their first playoff series, and it is something that could lead to more questions.
The bullpen is the Phillies' fatal flaw
The numbers don't lie. Instead, it tells an alarming truth. The Phillies bullpen ranks 23rd in the majors with a 4.35 ERA. Despite making efforts to upgrade, it has not gotten substantially better. There have been some good moments. Yet, the progress does not seem to be good enough to build confidence going into October.
The Phillies traded for Jhoan Duran to improve the back end of their bullpen. Overall, it has had some solid results so far. Duran is 0-2 with a 1.69 ERA and nine saves. Therefore, he is doing his job, and the Phillies likely will feel confident with him as their closer. But what about the rest? The closer is not the only pitcher a bullpen needs. No, it needs more.
Jordan Romano has continued his miserable season and is 2-4 with an 8.23 ERA and eight saves. Consequently, it might result in him being left off the postseason roster. Matt Strahm is 2-3 with a 2.93 ERA and six saves, and likely will serve as the setup man for the remainder of the season while also occasionally closing.
Orion Kerkering is 7-4 with a 3.10 ERA and four saves. Meanwhile, David Robertson is 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA. Despite the closer getting all the attention, it's the middle-inning relievers that will need to do their jobs effectively. They are the guys who generally come into the game in high-pressure situations in the middle frames and will need to be sharp.
Why the Jose Alvarado situation makes it worse
Jose Alvarado returned to the Phillies bullpen last month after serving an 80-game suspension for violating the MLB drug policy. Although he is back for the regular season, he is ineligible for the playoffs. Because of this, it puts more pressure on the Phillies and hurts their decision-making.
Alvarado has pitched well since returning. Currently, he is 4-2 with a 3.33 ERA and six saves. While Alvarado can help the Phillies clinch the division title, he will not be able to do much afterward. This is the time where the Phillies must understand who else is in their bullpen, and who can be the most effective.
The Phillies have other relievers vying for a spot, such as Tim Mayza and Tanner Banks, who have both been effective at times, and could make the postseason roster to replace Alvarado.
Why the bullpen will cause a Phillies playoff collapse
There has been some improvement, but will it be enough to win in the playoffs? To access that answer, one must look at the potential opponents and how the field will play out.
If the Phillies were to start the playoffs today, they would begin a best-of-3 series against the New York Mets. So far, that does not bode well for the Phillies. The Phillies are just 3-6 against the Mets in 2025. Additionally, they eliminated the Phillies 2-0 in the 2024 NL Wild Card Series. For whatever reason, the Mets have the Phillies' number.
Complicating things for the Phillies is the absence of Wheeler. With their ace out for the season, they will rely on Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, Jesus Luzardo, and Aaron Nola to get the job done. While this is still an above-average rotation, there is also a chance they may flounder. Luzardo, for example, struggled in his last outing against the Mets, going just four innings while allowing four earned runs on five hits and walking three. Sanchez also struggled, going 5.1 innings while allowing six earned runs on eight hits.
If this happens again, it will bring the bullpen into the game a lot sooner than anticipated. Ultimately, it could cause a lot of strain on a bullpen that was already having issues. In the end, this Phillies' fatal flaw could cost them another chance at a title.
