The San Diego Padres will likely be a playoff team unless they experience a total collapse in their final 11 games.
At 82-69, the Friars are currenlty holding down the second Wild Card position, five games back of the Chicago Cubs for the top WC spot. San Diego is also just two games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West Division. Anything is possible, as the division has been close for about a month now; however, the Padres have not been able to keep the lead. The two times this season they did pass the Dodgers in the division, LA immediately got it back and have held it ever since.
The Dodgers and Padres are both 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Dodgers are trying to avoid a series sweep against the Philadelphia Phillies, while the Padres hope to win a series against a struggling New York Mets squad. The Mets took Game 1 of the series in New York as they demolished Michael King early. San Diego must respond with a win.
The Padres do have a nightmare playoff scenario, and unfortunately for them, it is the likely scenario. With how things are looking, the Padres need the Dodgers to finish no better than 6-5 in their final 11 games to have a shot at winning the division. Even though the Dodgers have not been winning games at their usual rate, it's hard to imagine them giving up the NL West with the tiebreaker over SD.
This means the Friars need to finish at least 8-3 minimum (really 9-2) to have a legit shot at securing the 3-seed and NL West title for the first time since 2006. It will be tough, but it can happen.
If the Padres do not win the division and finish as the 5-seed, then they will head to Chicago to take on the Cubs. The Cubs are five games back of the Milwaukee Brewers, but there is little to no shot they come back to win that division. As good as the Brewers are, depending on how they finish will be where the nightmare situation comes in for the Padres.
The Padres don't care who they play, but with how the Philadelphia Phillies are playing right now, they may pass the Brewers and secure the top seed in the National League. That would line them up to take on the winner of the Cubs/Padres series. If the Padres have to travel to Chicago for three games, as well as Philadelphia in a best-of-five, that would be a very difficult path.
The Phillies sent the Padres home in five games back in the 2022 NLCS. Bryce Harper smashed a go-ahead two-run home run in the bottom of the 8th inning in what was the biggest home run of his career. Three outs later, the Phillies clinched a spot in the World Series, but eventually lost to the Houston Astros. Philadelphia has a similar roster this season, but will be without Zack Wheeler. The Phillies have won eight of their last 10 games and own the second-best run differential in the National League at +129 behind the Brewers at +180. San Diego does not want a potential repeat playing against arguably the hottest team in the league heading into the postseason.
Milwaukee has been great all season and deserves to be the top seed in the NL if they were to get there. However, the Padres are 2-1 against the Brew Crew already and will take on the Brewers next week before the regular season ends. Because of the first series back in June, and the fact that the Brewers have cooled down a little, I don't feel they are as big a threat to the Padres right now, compared to the Phillies.
Even with all this said, the Padres must get past the Chicago Cubs first. The Cubs also have a +129 run differential right now and contain one of the best offenses in baseball.
If the Padres want to make any noise this October, they must buckle in and prepare for a bumpy ride. The Padres won't go anywhere unless they are playing their absolute best. Neither the Cubs, Phillies, nor Brewers will make it easy for them.
San Diego is hoping to get Xander Bogaerts back for the playoffs. He has been out for the last few weeks with a fractured foot, but is expected to be back in the lineup for the postseason. It would benefit him and the Friars more if he returned to the lineup for the final series of the season against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
