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The San Diego Padres have taken the National League West lead from the Los Angeles Dodgers. A slide from the defending champs, timed with a 24-13 run for San Diego, has the division up in the air. While the Padres have gotten great performances from Nick Pivetta this year, they need him to step up down the stretch and dominate in the playoffs. Their pitching staff has been strong this year, but it could cost them in a strong National League.
The Padres did not make much noise in the offseason despite losing to the Dodgers in the NLDS. Pivetta was their biggest move, signing a four-year, $55 million contract. Ownership changed, with Peter Siedler taking over for his brother John, who passed away. But he quelled concerns about a lack of spending at the MLB trade deadline.
Padres GM AJ Preller went all-in again at the deadline, but did not land a playoff-caliber starting pitcher. Nestor Cortes could help down the stretch, but won't get a playoff start. They revamped the bullpen with Mason Miller and bolstered the offense with Ryan O'Hearn. But they did not give the rotation any support, putting pressure on Pivetta.
Pivetta is in the midst of a career year, with a 2.87 ERA in 24 starts after another dazzling start on Wednesday. The Padres have not gotten a great season out of Dylan Cease, 4.52 ERA in 24 starts, and Michael King has been injured. While their top two pitchers have struggled, their free-agent bet has paid off big time. If all three of them start clicking at the same time, San Diego could be the team to beat in the National League.
The Padres are trying to beat the Dodgers, and their best chance is by getting dominant starting pitching down the stretch.
The Padres have a dominant offense, but will it show up?
While they lost in the NLDS last year, the Padres did get some fantastic performances in the postseason. Fernando Tatis Jr went 11-26 with four home runs in just seven games. But Manny Machado had just five hits and only picked up four RBI. But their likely counterpart, the Dodgers, have struggled with starting pitching injuries all season.
The Padres can count on a lot of things when they start the postseason. They can count on their bullpen arms, like Mason Miller and Robert Suarez, and can count on some of their offense. Luis Arraez will bring that contact bat with him anywhere, and at least one of Machado and Tatis should be dominant.
With the Dodgers' offense struggling recently, the Padres cannot give them any room to gain momentum. When their opposition made a mistake last October, Los Angeles pounced. Whether it was Juan Soto's mishandling in right field in the World Series or Dylan Cease's two poor starts in the NLDS, they always took advantage.
The National League got stronger in the offseason, and the Milwaukee Brewers are still running away from the pack. Kyle Tucker and Soto are in the NL now, and they were not before. The Brewers have had their playoff struggles, but they are on a different level right now. All of that says that the Padres will have a tough ride into October, and a rough ride to their third-ever NL pennant.
The Padres got another great start from Nick Pivetta on Wednesday, finishing off a sweep of the San Francisco Giants. They are used to these massive starts from Pivetta ending perfectly, but that has not been the story in the rest of his career. Can he continue his ace form in October and lift the Padres to their first World Series appearance since 1998?
