The Miami Heat (10-12) visit the Boston Celtics (18-4) on Friday. Action tips off at 7:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Celtics prediction and pick.
Despite their loss on Wednesday, Miami has won three of their last four and have vaulted into 10th place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 7-14-1 against the spread while 55% of their games have gone over. Boston finds itself with the best record in the league in the midst of a five-game win streak. The Celtics are 14-8 against the spread while 62% of their games have gone over. This will be the second game in a row between the two teams. Boston took Wednesday's matchup 134-121 behind Jayson Tatum's 49 points.
Here are the Heat-Celtics NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Heat-Celtics Odds
Miami Heat: +7 (-106)
Boston Celtics: -7 (-114)
Over: 226.5 (-112)
Under: 226.5 (-108)
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
The Heat have played well as of late after a rough start to the season. Despite their loss to Boston on Wednesday, Miami should take solace in the fact they kept things close considering Tatum scored 49 points. For as good as Tatum's been this year, he's unlikely to have a repeat performance. Jimmy Butler is also expected to return to action tonight after missing an extended period of time with an injury.
Miami profiles as a defensive-minded team that struggles to create offense and crash the boards. The Heat rank eighth in points allowed and tenth in defensive efficiency. They have struggled offensively, however, scoring the fourth-fewest points per game while maintaining a bottom-ten offensive efficiency rating. They are also bottom-ten in rebounding differential and rebound rate.
Miami found a lot of success against Boston from beyond the arc and through star big man Bam Adebayo. The Heat shot 45% from three in the loss while Adebayo scored 23 points. Miami received great production from their starting guards. Tyler Herro scored 22 points, Max Stress scored 23, and Kyle Lowry chipped in 14. One of those three will likely move to the bench thanks to the return of Butler, but Miami does a good job distributing minutes. They'll need similar performances from their perimeter players if they want to cover tonight.
The biggest cause for concern in Wednesday's loss to Boston came on defense. The usually-stout Miami defense was torched by Boston's wings as Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for 75 of the Celtics' 134 points. This is where the return of Butler could prove to be most critical. Tatum's scoring has dipped significantly when facing Butler, as he averages just 20.9 PPG against Jimmy. While Tatum has brought his game up a level this season, Butler remains an upper-echelon defender and his return is something to keep in mind when making a Heat-Celtics prediction.
Why The Celtics Could Cover The Spread
Boston remains one of the best teams not just in the NBA, but in recent regular season memory. Boston's record speaks for itself, but its underlying numbers are truly remarkable. Offensively, the Celtics lead the league in scoring, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, free throw percentage, and efficiency. They have the highest point differential in the league – demonstrating their dominance on both ends of the floor. Defensively the Celtics are middle of the pack as they come in at 15th in points allowed and 21st in efficiency. They're similarly vulnerable on the glass where they rank 20th in rebounding differential and 22nd in rebound rate.
Jayson Tatum headlines a potent offense thanks to an incredible stat line of 31.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 4.5 APG. He also averages a steal and a block per game. Tatum seemingly still has room to improve on his scoring mark as he's shooting just 37% from three. While that is a solid number, Tatum has proven in the past to be an elite shooter – evidenced by his 8-12 performance from beyond the arc on Wednesday. He's the betting favorite to win MVP and for good reason. While he shouldn't be expected to score 49 points again, it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility given how well he's played this season.
Guard Jaylen Brown has quietly put together one of the best “robin” seasons in recent memory. Although not quite as impressive as Tatum's, Brown's season has been impressive in its own right. Brown's thrived as the secondary scorer averaging 26.1 PPG on 51% shooting. With Butler back for the Heat and likely to match up with Tatum, expect Brown to take on a much bigger role in this one.
Final Heat-Celtics Prediction & Pick
With Butler back, I like Miami to keep things tight even if Boston eventually squeaks out a win.
Final Heat-Celtics Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat +7 (-106)
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