The Golden State Warriors travel to Texas to take on the Dallas Mavericks for the first of a back-to-back set. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Warriors-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Warriors stand at 11-10 overall and 10-11 against the spread. Golden State is coming off a loss to the Boston Celtics in the Chase Center.
The Mavericks hold a record of 9-13 overall but they are 10-12 against the spread. Dallas broke a six-game losing streak on Wednesday against the Atlanta Hawks.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Warriors-Mavericks odds.
NBA Odds: Warriors-Mavericks Odds
Golden State Warriors +3 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks -3 (-110)
Over 228.5 PTS (-110)
Under 228.5 PTS (-110)
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
All season, the Warriors have been a solid defensive team. Golden State has held their opponents to the second-lowest overall field-goal percentage and the third-least field goals in the league.
It will be difficult for the Warriors to match those numbers on Thursday with James Wiseman and Kevon Looney out.
Golden State is likely to bleed points in the painted area tonight, so their best hope is to outshoot the Mavericks.
The Mavs have been terrible from deep, hitting the lowest percentage from beyond the arc of any team in the NBA. The Warriors should have a major advantage from the three-point line and will need to drain their open shots to get the upset.
A good sign for the Warriors is that Curry has been connecting from deep at a wild rate in the Warriors’ most recent games. In his last five outings, Steph is hitting 53% of his threes on eleven attempts per game.
Golden State needs Curry to continue his hot streak to keep them in the game while their defense is handicapped.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
On the defensive end, this is a good matchup for the Mavericks.
The Warriors’ main weapon this season has been the three-point shot. Golden State attempts the seventh most three-pointers in the league and get a whopping 36% of their points from those shots.
Dallas’ defense is geared up to stop the three-point shot. While their field-goal defense overall is middle-tier (17th overall), their three-point defense has been solid, holding opponents to the fifth-lowest percentage from deep in the league.
Another factor leaning in the Mavericks’ favor is the lack of size Golden State will have coming in to this game.
Both Wiseman and Looney will miss this matchup, meaning the tallest active Warrior will be Andrew Wiggins, who stands at 6-foot-7.
The Mavericks should have a field day on the boards against a Warriors team that already allows the most offensive rebounds in the league. Look for Luka Doncic and Porzingis to have their way in the paint all night with little resistance at the rim.
Final Warriors-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
Even though the Mavericks have struggled recently, it looked like they turned a page in Atlanta. Doncic played well, but more importantly, the Mavs got production out of their role players. Against an injury riddled Warriors team, I’ll back the Mavs to win their second straight and dominate the painted area to get a victory.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DAL 119, GSW 111 (DAL -3)