Subscribe
Follow Us
The 2018 NBA Draft class is dripping with talent, but no draftee is ready to hit the ground running quite like Luka Doncic. Though it's somewhat less prominent, he still faces the inevitable skepticism that most overseas prospects endure. The Slovenian is viewed by many as one of the best international prospects to ever come stateside.
Not many expect Doncic to be a bust. The question is more about whether or not he will develop into a full-fledged superstar. Mina Kimes of ESPN wrote:
“Among league insiders, the question isn't whether the Slovenian teenager will bust — almost no one thinks that. Rather, it's whether his ceiling is high enough to justify drafting him above the likes of Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III.”
Doncic is currently leading the pack in betting odds to win the Rookie of the Year at +375 according to BetOnline.ag. Deandre Ayton (+400), Collin Sexton (+450), and Kevin Knox (+700) aren't far behind Doncic, but they'll ultimately fall short as Doncic hoists the ROY trophy in June.
His experience on the world stage, success in Europe's best league, and a nearly perfect situation in Dallas all make Doncic the heavy favorite to walk away with the ROY.
EuroBasket 2017
This was the moment where Doncic announced to the world that he was for real. American fans finally saw what many fans of overseas basketball already knew. Luka Doncic is a stud. He was dominant in performances against a host of NBA stars. He put up 27 points and nine rebounds in a game against Kristaps Porzingis' Latvia.
DONCIC AGAIN! I love how Slovenia ran two pick-and-rolls to get Doncic iso'd on Porzingis. Beautiful. The future is bright. pic.twitter.com/5EnUqlgN4j
— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) September 12, 2017
His 11 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists led the way in a semifinal victory over the star-laden Spanish team including NBA stars like Ricky Rubio, Marc Gasol, and Pau Gasol. Rubio had a particularly tough time against Doncic — who was only 18 at the time.
He followed up those performances with a lackluster finals performance, but his effort was still enough to take down Serbia and bring the championship home to Slovenia. Doncic's eye-opening performance was enough to warrant honors on the All-Star Five alongside Aleksei Shved, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Pau Gasol, and his Slovenian teammate, Goran Dragic.
Dragic took home MVP honors, but it was clear that Slovenia would not have had the same success without Doncic. On the world stage, Doncic delivered in a big way. This was the moment when NBA fans began taking notice. Could this 18-year-old kid actually be the real deal? He did it with and against NBA stars at EuroBasket 2017 without showing a shred of timidness.
https://twitter.com/draftprosnba/status/908411302682464257
Real Madrid
It's not always easy for young players to carve out consistent minutes overseas. Coaches have a tendency to stick with older, more experienced players as opposed to riding with young talent. For reference, Kristaps Porzingis — one of the most hyped international prospects in recent memory — only averaged around 21 minutes per game in his final season with Sevilla.
Mario Hezonja — selected one pick after Porzingis — only logged 15 minutes per game with Barcelona in 2014-15.
Doncic played more than 25 minutes per game in his final season for Real Madrid. He notched per game averages for points/rebounds/assists of 14.5/5.2/4.6. Comparitavely, Porzingis had a slash line of 11.0/4.6/0.5, while Hezonja tallied per game averages of 5.8/2.0/1.2.
These stats tell a story, but it's only a small portion of that story. This doesn't necessarily mean that Doncic is ready to lead the Mavericks back to the playoffs. But it does say that he may be a bit more polished than some of his European predecessors were when they made the leap to the NBA.
Additionally, Doncic was named Turkish Airlines EuroLeague MVP in 2017-18. In EuroLeague play, Doncic averaged 16.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. He was the youngest MVP in the history of the EuroLeague. This is a monumental feat for any player, let alone a 19-year-old who is barely scratching the surface of what he can do.
Additionally, there's little debate between the competition of the NCAA and EuroLeague. The best teams in the NCAA could probably compete with an average EuroLeague team, but the overall competition in the EuroLeague is better than what college players are facing. Back in 2015, Matt Walsh — playing for Eskisehir Basket, Turkey at the time — told Jorge Sierra of HoopsHype:
“I want to start by saying Kentucky is an incredible team. No question they have rare, extraordinary talent, but no chance they would beat a Euroleague team. Euroleague teams are made up of grown men. I don't think the average fan realizes the difference between pros and collegiate players. Kentucky is physically dominant against other college players, but they wouldn't be able to physically overmatch the highest level European pros.”
That should tell fans all they need to know about the competition that Doncic was playing against. Moreover, he wasn't just playing against this competition, he was the best player on the court. He's not afraid of the competition.
A Nearly Perfect Situation
Teams drafting in the lottery don't always have the best situations for players to enter. The absence of veteran leadership can make the transition tough, especially for foreign-born players. Some teams have shaky coaching situations — either a new, unproven coach or a head coach on the hot seat. Some teams are in the midst of a complete rebuild without much hope to compete in the near future. Other times, a player can come in as the lone “savior” for a franchise and have heaps of hype and expectations stacked on his shoulders.
Article Continues Below
None of these scenarios are the case for Doncic in Dallas. It's quite the opposite, in fact.
First and foremost, Dirk Nowitzki is the perfect mentor for Doncic. Dirk will retire — whenever that may be — as the most accomplished foreign-born player in the history of the NBA. He's spent his entire career with Dallas and he figured out how to lead the Mavericks to their first championship in franchise history. If there's anyone who can help show Doncic the way, it's Nowitzki.
The Mavericks have anything but a shaky coaching situation. Rick Carlisle is entering his 11th season in Dallas and he has a championship on his resume. The Mavs have not made the playoffs since the 2015-16 season and haven't won a playoff series since they beat the Heat in the 2011 NBA Finals. That being said, the situation with Carlisle isn't a volatile one. Carlisle is considered one of the best coaches in the NBA and one would assume his job is safe.
It's obvious that the Mavericks were tanking last season. Mark Cuban was fined a hefty amount for admitting to this much. Cuban told Julius Erving on the podcast House Call with Dr. J.:
“I'm probably not supposed to say this, but, like, I just had dinner with a bunch of our guys the other night, and here we are, you know, we weren't competing for the playoffs. I was like, ‘Look, losing is our best option.'”
But Cuban doesn't plan to continue tanking. The Mavs went out and signed DeAndre Jordan in the offseason and made it clear that they are trying to compete in the brutal Western Conference. They might not succeed in their quest to make the postseason, but it won't be for lack of trying.
Finally, Doncic isn't coming into Dallas as a lone wolf. The veterans on the roster know how to win. Nowitzki and Jordan are joined by the championship-winning Harrison Barnes. But the veterans aren't the teammate to watch Doncic develop alongside.
Dennis Smith Jr. is coming off of an impressive rookie campaign. Although he was never a thought in the Rookie of the Year conversation, he was named to the NBA's All-Rookie Second Team. He showed flashes of brilliance last season with his bouncy athleticism and exciting playstyle.
He and Doncic could be the perfect pairing alongside one another for years to come. Smith told Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated that the two are already building a bond on the court.
“Me and Luk have been playing pickup, and every day we’re on the same team we get the most wins regardless of who is in there.
“I like his game. On draft night I was saying I was a fan. After seeing him in person and playing on his team, I think he can contribute early. We can coexist. He is going to be pretty good.”
The situation in Dallas might not be perfect, but it's pretty close. Doncic's stable situation will play a huge factor in his run at the ROY award this season.
In Closing
Anything can happen in the NBA. Not many predicted Donovan Mitchell to have a breakout rookie season and strongly contend for the Rookie of the Year. If not for the “rookie” Ben Simmons, Mitchell would have been the obvious choice. Just like Mitchell, another dark horse candidate could come from nowhere in 2018-19.
Regardless, Luka Doncic is poised to make a strong run at the coveted Rookie of the Year award. Barring injury, he's the odds-on favorite as the season approaches. He's had success on the world stage at EuroBasket 2017. Furthermore, he's been wildly successful against some of the best competition outside of the NBA. Finally, he's entering a stable situation in Dallas that should help kickstart his development from day one.
Nothing is a guarantee, but everything points to Luka Doncic taking home some hardware after his rookie campaign.
