There's just something about the Golden State Warriors losing to teams missing their star player. The Dubs' three-game winning streak came to an end at the hands of Paolo Banchero-less Orlando Magic, falling 121-113 in their fifth game of a six-game road trip. While Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler combined for 67 points, the Warriors' defense surrendered 64 points in the paint and allowed six Magic players to score double digits.
“We needed to be really sharp tonight. We weren't quite sharp enough,” Kerr said after the game. “I thought we played well in stretches. They played really well; they played fast. I thought in the second quarter, free throws factored in. 18 free throws for them in the second, and we just had some plays we didn't convert. Some timely turnovers where they scored at the other end. I love the effort, guys gave everything they had. A lot of good execution and then some plays we'd like to have back.”
It was another game in which the Warriors, who ranked 24th entering the night in turnovers per game (16.2) lost the turnover differential battle, a recurring theme for them. Golden State has only won one game this season in which they had more turnovers than their opponent, in their recent win versus the abysmal New Orleans Pelicans. And as Kerr recapped, the turnovers came at the worst of times, blunting any hope of a comeback.
But given that it was their fifth game in eight days, it's understandable that tired legs and road fatigue wore on them throughout the game. It wouldn't even be a surprise if Golden State dropped the Miami Heat matchup in less than 24 hours. Regardless, here are three takeaways from the Dubs' seventh loss of the season
The defensive on/off Draymond Green numbers remain staggering
The only player to finish with a positive plus/minus was Draymond Green, who tallied a +9 in an 8-point loss. That's the kind of statistic that you see in the box score and wonder, “Huh, how did that happen?” In reality, that number is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to how Golden State fares with Green on and off the court, particularly on defense.
Entering the game, the Warriors ranked 10th in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions (113.2). That's entirely propped up by Green as their defense allows 18.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the court per Cleaning the Glass's database. He ranks in the 99th percentile in the league in that on/off category. Additionally, opponents shoot 7.8% worse in effective field goal percentage, which ranks in the 97th percentile in the league among eligible players.
At age 35, Green remains one of the most effective defensive players in the NBA; that much is obvious, especially in matchups against star bigs like Victor Wembanyama. But Golden State's defense is a sieve pretty much whenever he hits the bench. The Warriors allow a staggering 123.5 defensive rating when Green's not on the court, which would rank 28th in the NBA next to the tanking Wizards and Nets.
It's a freeway to the paint when Green's sitting. Opponents blow by the Warriors' perimeter defenders, and with no Green on the backline, the help is usually late. Orlando took advantage of that, attacking early and often whenever they saw Green on the bench.
We talk so often about how the Warriors' offense will score when Curry rests, but we don't talk nearly enough about how the defense will survive when Green's off the floor.
Buddy Hield is becoming unplayable
Buddy Hield has had a rough start to the NBA season, and he didn't show many signs of getting out of that slump in his night versus Orlando. In 15 minutes, Hield finished with only 2 points on 1-of-3 shooting and a -5 plus/minus and wasn't much better defensively.
It's not like Golden State's putting Hield in the game to defend, even if Kerr has called Hield an underrated defender in the past. But they are putting him in the game to score and space the floor. And while Hield will always command respect from beyond the arc and create space from his sheer presence, he's not making enough threes at a rate good enough to overlook the defensive limitations.
The Warriors score 1.3 fewer per 100 possessions when Hield is on the floor, which ranks in the 40th percentile across the league. On the season, Hield is 18-of-57 from beyond the arc, a 31.6% 3FG percentage that would be the worst he's ever shot in a season for his career were he to keep shooting that way.
Pair that with the fact that the Dubs allow 17.6 more points when Hield is on the floor, which skyrockets the defensive rating to 131.1 points per 100 possessions, and it's becoming untenable to keep giving him minutes, especially when guards like Will Richard and Moses Moody are defending and shooting much better. That's without mentioning De'Anthony Melton, who is nearing a return from ACL surgery.
And while Hield's locker room presence and chemistry with Butler are certainly important, his $9.22 million salary remains an intriguing trade piece should Golden State look to be aggressive on the trade market. Those are the uncomfortable conversations the Warriors may have to have if Hield can't rediscover his shooting.
Road trip near a merciful end
For as many concerns as we may have about the Warriors and their contending chances, they have had a pretty terrible schedule to open the season. When they tip off in Miami, they will have played their 17th game in 29 days and 13 different cities. Given that context, it's almost a miracle they've come out of it relatively unscathed and with a positive win-loss record.
The one thing to look forward to once they get past this difficult stretch of the season is the string of home games coming up. They'll have a five-game homestand after returning home from Miami. And once the new year kicks off, Golden State will have 17 home games across 26 games in January and February.
It's easy to feel like the bottom is falling out for Golden State as they tread water above .500. Even more so when you look at their alarming turnover rate, defensive shortcomings, and habit of losing to teams missing key players. But nights like this one in Orlando are the simple reality of a team fielding multiple stars in their late thirties. It's all about getting to the postseason in one piece.
Golden State will look to end this road trip on a positive note with a reunion with Andrew Wiggins and the Heat.
