Subscribe
Follow Us
The Golden State Warriors' long-awaited Christmas matchup with the rival Memphis Grizzlies has lost some luster without Stephen Curry. Rest assured that both sides will be amped for another edition of basketball's favorite rivalry regardless, ready to prove themselves in a battle between teams who fully believe they have what it takes to win the West come playoff time.
Here are three bold Warriors predictions for their Christmas day tilt with the Grizzlies.
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)*
3. Klay Thompson goes off from deep
The crevices Curry's presence creates both on and off the ball won't come nearly as easily against Memphis with him continuing to nurse a left shoulder injury. The Warriors actually take more shots at the rim with their best player off the floor, but the manner of those attempts is far different, stemming more from individual drives from the likes of Poole and Jonathan Kuminga than numbers advantages gleaned from pick-and-rolls, split cuts and back screens involving Curry.
That's a key dynamic versus any team, but especially the Grizzlies. Curry's absence will only make Jaren Jackson Jr. that much more threatening as a weak-side shot-blocker, simplifying and shortening his rotations on the backline while checking Draymond Green or Kevon Looney, both non-shooters. Memphis won't be forced to show its aggressive help quite so early, either, making efficient halfcourt offense even tougher sledding for the Curry-less Warriors.
Golden State's best chance at managing consistent offense will have to come from deep as a result, and few players meet single-game moments quite like Klay Thompson. The Grizzlies will have to hide Morant somewhere, and Andrew Wiggins' probable return means Jenkins' best option might be starting him on Thompson.
Morant's improved on that side of the ball this season, but is still prone to lapses of inattentiveness away from the play and getting stuck on screens. Quick as he is off his feet, Morant doesn't have the length to bother Thompson's jumper unless he's able to stay attached.
Thompson may not get many great looks on Sunday. The Grizzlies know full well just how important he is to the Warriors' offense with Curry watching from the bench. No matter. Just like he did while closing out Memphis last spring, bringing back “Game 6 Klay,” anticipate Thompson going off from three against the Grizzlies, driving Golden State's much-needed early momentum in a matchup both teams badly want to win.
2. Jordan Poole struggles offensively
Dillon Brooks has stuck to Curry like glue in past Warriors-Grizzlies matchups, his handsy, physical isolation defense occasionally causing problems for the reigning Finals MVP. It's unclear how Memphis will defend Golden State with Curry sidelined, but don't be surprised if Jenkins affords Poole that same treatment, siccing Brooks on him in hopes of cutting off the head of the Warriors' offensive snake.
Poole has thrived all year as a starter. His 43-point explosion against the Toronto Raptors last weekend confirmed he's certainly capable of being an effective offensive alpha dog in Golden State's system. But the Grizzlies present ball handlers a different challenge both at the point of attack and beyond it, making them deduce multiple levels of active, disruptive defense on the fly, with Jackson—perhaps basketball's best rim-protector and early Defensive Player of the Year favorite—waiting to smother dribblers on the drive.
Poole doesn't always handle pressed-up isolation defense with enough composure. His seven turnovers in Wednesday's ugly loss to the Brooklyn Nets show just how far he has to go against a long, versatile defense that's geared up to stop him. Those valuable developmental growing pains will persist versus Memphis, with Poole unable to regularly produce efficient offense for himself and his teammates, causing Golden State's offense to sputter and igniting the Grizzlies' fierce transition attack.
1. Warriors fall to Grizzlies by double-digits
Golden State is the league's second-best home team, with a 12-2 record and gaudy +12.9 net rating at Chase Center, per Cleaning the Glass. Not a single one of those games was played without Curry, though, and Memphis has all the motivation in the world to come to play against the defending champs even before Morant's audacious boast earlier this week about his team's lacking competition in the Western Conference.
The Grizzlies responded to the ensuing hoopla by backing up Morant's talk on Friday, blowing out the Phoenix Suns in the desert in a game the superstar floor general shot 4-of-14 from the floor. Morant will be better with the whole league watching on Christmas, ready to exploit the Warriors' likely strategy of ducking under ball screens, daring him to launch from deep.
But even if Morant doesn't have his jumper going, the Grizzlies could be tough for Golden State to stop now that Desmond Bane is back, opening up space in the halfcourt with his versatile three-point shooting and taking pressure of Morant as another dangerous ball handler. Memphis could have the NBA's best starting lineup, a group that debuted in Phoenix to the tune of +11 in as many minutes.
The Warriors, obviously, have a case for that distinction, too, one rooted in championship glory of 2022 and early-season dominance that belies the team's struggles overall. But there are only a couple players in basketball whose team-specific value comes close to matching Curry's. Without him, Golden State just doesn't have the top-end talent nor impactful depth to match the Grizzlies, its success even more reliant on winning the battle from beyond the arc—a task made difficult in wake of Bane's return.
Both teams will come ready to play on Christmas, bringing a postseason atmosphere to Chase Center in late December. But Memphis is simply the better team when Curry is in street clothes, a reality it's poised to prove over the game's remainder once early adrenaline from both sides at least somewhat dissipates. Expect the Grizzlies to beat the Warriors by double-digits, setting the stage for another must-watch, more telling matchup in Memphis a month from now, once Curry is finally back on the floor.
