The stage could not be bigger for Alperen Şengün and Turkey. After a perfect 7-0 run that has surprised Europe and elevated the national team into legitimate title contention, Turkey now finds itself standing across from Greece, a powerhouse led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, in the EuroBasket semifinals. What has been a storybook tournament for Şengün and his teammates will be tested against arguably the most dominant player in the competition.

Şengün has been sensational, averaging 21.6 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 7.1 assists across seven games while carrying Turkey with both his versatility and leadership. He has delivered consistent double-double performances, outdueled stars, and showcased an all-around brilliance that reflects the modern center’s role in international basketball. Yet the semifinal is an entirely different beast. Facing Giannis, Kostas Sloukas, and a Greek squad filled with both experience and athleticism, Şengün will need to push his game even further.

The matchup is not just about advancing to the final; it is about validating Turkey’s arrival on the European stage. Here are three bold predictions for Alperen Şengün’s semifinal showdown with Greece.

Alperen Şengün records a triple-double in the semifinal

Throughout the tournament, Şengün has been more than just a scorer or rebounder. His passing ability has stood out as Turkey’s offensive hub, tallying 50 assists in seven games, an astonishing average of 7.1 per contest. Against Poland in the quarterfinal, he dished out 10 assists while still controlling the boards and finding his offense in the paint. That ability to orchestrate the game makes him Turkey’s version of a point-center, a rare weapon that has carried them through tight stretches.

Against Greece, Şengün will face relentless defensive pressure. Giannis is a terror in transition, but in half-court sets, Greece will likely deploy multiple defenders to cut off Şengün’s post touches and force the ball out of his hands. This challenge could actually play into his strengths, as his vision from the high post and low block can punish overhelping defenders. Spotting shooters like Shane Larkin and Tyler Dorsey, or slipping pocket passes to cutters, Şengün can dismantle defensive rotations.

That makes the prediction of a triple-double very much alive. With his current averages, reaching the mark would only require one extraordinary all-around performance: a line like 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists is entirely within reach. In fact, Şengün’s impact on this game may be measured more by how effectively he involves others than by his scoring alone. Against Greece’s size and athleticism, Turkey’s best chance lies in ball movement, and Şengün will be the engine.

Alperen Şengün outrebounds Giannis in the battle of the paint

This semifinal could very well be decided by who controls the glass. Giannis has been monstrous for Greece, averaging 9.8 rebounds through the tournament and dominating physically at both ends. Yet Şengün has quietly been one of the top rebounders of the entire EuroBasket, averaging nearly 11 boards a game while anchoring Turkey’s interior defense.

What makes this prediction bold is not that Şengün is a good rebounder, but that he will outperform Giannis in this category in the most high-stakes game yet. Greece thrives on second-chance points and transition opportunities created from defensive rebounds. If Şengün can not only match but surpass Giannis on the boards, Turkey can limit those easy scoring chances and tilt the possession battle in their favor.

This is where Şengün’s positioning, timing, and sheer relentlessness matter. While Giannis often grabs rebounds through overwhelming athleticism, Şengün has shown an elite ability to read trajectories and carve out space with his body. Against Serbia earlier in the group stage, he hauled in 13 rebounds against a bigger frontline, showing he can rise to the occasion against elite competition.

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A bold but reasonable prediction is that Şengün will finish with 14 or 15 rebounds, compared to Giannis’ 10 or 11. It may sound like a small margin, but in a semifinal decided by fine details, this edge could keep Turkey alive deep into the fourth quarter.

Şengün scores 25+ points despite Greece’s defense

The final bold prediction is that Alperen Şengün will not just facilitate and rebound but also deliver a huge scoring night. Greece’s defense is designed to protect the paint and collapse on post threats, but Şengün has developed too many tools to be neutralized. His touch around the rim, craft with fakes, and ability to stretch the defense with mid-range jumpers make him difficult to contain with single coverage.

Through seven games, he has already had multiple 25+ point performances while facing physical defenses like Serbia’s and Sweden’s. Greece will likely throw various bodies at him: Giannis, Georgios Papagiannis, and others, but Şengün has shown the patience to outlast those efforts. His free-throw shooting (76.7% on the tournament) also makes him a reliable scoring option late in games, where every possession is magnified.

The bold call here is that Şengün rises above the defensive challenge and cracks 25 points in the semifinal, even if it comes on a mix of field goals and trips to the line. A scoring line like 26 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists is not out of the question. Even if Greece ultimately wins the game, Şengün’s performance will cement his reputation as one of the premier stars of EuroBasket 2025.

The bigger picture

This semifinal is not just about statistics; it is about Turkey proving that its undefeated run is not a fluke. For years, Turkish basketball has searched for a generational talent who can redefine its global identity, and Şengün is becoming that player. The matchup against Giannis is both symbolic and competitive: the established NBA superstar against the rising young big man whose game is as unique as it is effective.

While the prediction here is that Greece edges out Turkey to advance to the final, Şengün’s role in the contest will define how close the game becomes. If he can deliver on these bold predictions: a triple-double, an edge on the glass, and 25+ points. Turkey could very well pull off the upset. Either way, this game will be remembered as Şengün’s true arrival on the international stage, a performance that showcases his growth and foreshadows his dominance for years to come.