Despite owning the fifth-best record in the NBA, the Houston Rockets still haven’t proven much.
Houston brought in Kevin Durant this offseason to elevate the franchise to true championship-contender status. And while the early returns look strong on paper, an 11-4 record and the No. 2 offensive rating, there are still reasons for concern.
Stats can be a lot like bikinis: they reveal a lot, but not everything.
The Rocket's record is strong, but their resume is weak
After starting 0-2, the Rockets have ripped off 11 wins in their last 13 games, despite missing Dorian Finney-Smith, Tari Eason, and Kevin Durant at various times. It’s been an impressive stretch to start the year.
But through 14 games last season, Houston was also 10-4 – the same record as this year. Last year’s squad then went on a run to start the year with 15 wins in their first 21 games. This year’s version will need to win four of its next six just to match that pace, even after adding Durant and entering the season with heightened expectations.
Furthermore, despite their strong record, the Rockets are 0-3 against the teams ahead of them and only 3-3 against teams in the top half of the NBA’s standings. The majority of their wins have come against bottom-feeders like Brooklyn, Washington, and Dallas.
Houston’s most impressive victory so far was their fourth-quarter comeback in Milwaukee 17 days ago. A win that felt more significant at the time, as the Bucks have since dropped seven of their last 10 games, removing some of the shine from that victory.
And when Houston had its best opportunity to prove it’s ready for the big stage, Friday night at home against the Denver Nuggets, the Rockets’ stars delivered C-level performances. Alperen Sengun was a minus-16, Amen Thompson a minus-10, and Durant a minus-7, as the trio combined for just 49 points on 47 shots.
The Rockets have looked great against weaker opponents, but real questions remain when they face elite teams, which are the very teams they’ll need to beat to win a title.
Not to mention that Houston has yet to endure a back-to-back this season, while also playing the fewest games in the league to this point. The schedule will only become more of a challenge as the season progresses.
Is Houston’s offense built for the playoffs?
Houston has shifted dramatically from last season’s grind-it-out defensive style to one of the league’s most potent offensive attacks. They currently sit No. 1 in offensive rating, just 0.2 above Denver.
But questions remain about a team relying on a style we haven’t seen in decades. The Rockets are head and shoulders above everyone else in rebounding, including topping the league in offensive boards. Their second-chance points have been crucial for an offense that is attempting the fewest 3s in the league.
It’s been a great recipe thus far, but we just haven’t seen something like it in the playoffs in recent history. That doesn’t mean it won’t work, but it can lead to some skepticism about the offense’s long-term viability.
Outside of Denver’s title run three years ago, when the Nuggets attempted the sixth-fewest 3s in the league, every NBA champion since 2014 (excluding the COVID-altered 2019-2020 season) has finished in the top half of the league in 3-point attempts and top-10 in makes. The Rockets currently rank 22nd in made 3s.
Ironically, Houston’s best success during that time period also came when it led the league in both 3-point attempts and makes, falling just one win short of the 2018 NBA Finals.
Why the Rockets’ lack of a true point guard matters
Another lingering concern is the absence of a true point guard with Fred VanVleet sidelined for the season. Thompson has filled in admirably, but this is an issue that tends to surface more in the playoffs than in the regular season.
Houston is currently last in the NBA in assist percentage and has struggled with on-ball pressure against some of the league's better defensive teams.
Their 25 turnovers in Oklahoma City and 24 in San Antonio were major reasons for those losses. Two failed tests against quality opponents.
Houston has enough talent to continue to win through the regular season with Thompson, Reed Sheppard, and Aaron Holiday handling the ball. But will that be enough against the league’s elite?
So far, that answer has been no.
