For a team with championship aspirations, losing your veteran point guard right before the season starts feels like a nightmare. So much so, that the injury to Fred VanVleet shaved three victories off the Houston Rockets' projected win total in Vegas.
VanVleet was the Rockets' most valuable postseason performer last year, and the most experienced guard on this roster. Without him, Houston has had to turn to Amen Thompson learning the position and second-year player Reed Sheppard, who barely played last season after going No. 3 in the 2024 NBA Draft. The Rockets were just 11-11 in games VanVleet missed last season.
Through the first week of this season, things looked pretty ugly. Houston entered this week last in pace, first in turnovers per game, 26th in assist rate, second-worst in field goal percentage, and second-lowest in points per 100 half-court plays (83.7), according to Cleaning the Glass. Yikes.
Even the defense, Houston's calling card a year ago, has suffered — slipping from fifth last season to 12th this year.
Still, it's an injury that could serve as a blessing in disguise. This short-term pain could create long term gains that actually push the Rockets closer to championship contention.
Reed Sheppard finally gets his chance
Without VanVleet, the Rockets have been forced to rip the band-aid off with Sheppard to see what he can develop into, a year after being selected third overall. While all other lottery picks played north of 1,000 minutes as rookies last year, Sheppard mustered only 654.
Now, his minutes per game have already doubled this season as Houston tries to answer the important question of finding out what it has in the former Kentucky standout. Even if Sheppard proves inadequate in his new role, it's better to learn that now than delaying the inevitable.
This is much like the Minnesota Vikings, who chose to move on from both Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones this offseason (currently a combined 12-3 on their new first-place teams), to figure out what they had in second year quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
VanVleet, like Darnold and Jones, is a good veteran player, but he isn't a franchise changer. We already know that. This forced the Vikings to go back to the drawing board in search of one at the quarterback position. And VanVleet's absence is now forcing the Rockets to do the same thing: explore if Sheppard could become that difference maker.
Amen Thompson increases role
Furthermore, the injury has also forced Houston to slide Amen Thompson, one of the more exciting young players in the league, to point guard. With his elite athleticism and ability to get to the rim, the move could ultimately better serve both Thompson and the Rockets. It's a transition that Houston might only have fallen into due to the injury.
Things looked pretty promising in Monday's win over the Brooklyn Nets (all Nets caveats considered), when Thompson and Sheppard combined for 16 assists, compared to only two turnovers (both from Sheppard). It's exactly what Houston would be hoping for from this “point guard by committee,” as head coach Ime Udoka calls it. It's also something VanVleet would rarely be able to provide on his own, as he recorded just one 12-assist game last season.
“It's not all going to be perfect,” VanVleet told media this week. “We don't want to be perfect in October and November. We want to be great at the end of the season. So I think Reed's finding some aggressiveness, some chippiness, a little bit of fight. Amen is obviously being himself. He's trying to wear a lot hats and do a lot of different things. It's all gonna be a work in progress.”
“Both of these guys are students of the game and two of the hardest workers that I know and see,” VanVleet added. “There's no way that they can fail.”
But, the most important development has been the decision to run the offense through Alperen Sengun. His playmaking and vastly improved outside shooting have elevated him into a true MVP candidate.
Sengun, previously dubbed “Baby Jokic,” is the same age (23) as Nikola Jokic was when he made his first All-Star appearance and won his first MVP award. With averages of 6.7 assists per game (17th in the NBA) and a career-high 58.3% from 3-point range, Sengun has become a complete offensive player, capable of doing everything Jokic does. It's the next, and perhaps final, step of his progression and ascent to stardom.
And while these developments may not occur if VanVleet were healthy, they might just be exactly what Houston needs to reach the championship level it's so desperately chasing.
