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The Indiana Pacers appear to be headed for a summer full of difficult decisions. With three starters and their backup backcourt set to become free agents, they are bound to look like a new team.
What makes matters even more complicated is that Victor Oladipo is working his way back from a season-ending injury. Considering how the injury took place in late January, next season will likely be about him building confidence, improving his conditioning, and trying to re-gain his explosiveness.
Deciding to bring back the same group on long-term contracts would give them a ceiling that would likely fall well short of a possible run at an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals. Relying on signing veterans this summer to help take the next step likely won't work either because they are ‘not in the mix for top free agents.'
“Though teams aren't allowed to discuss acquisitions according to league rules, everyone talks. What's clear is the Pacers are not in the mix for top-tier free agents, league sources tell IndyStar.”
Bringing back the same group could result in an outcome similar to what has happened with the Miami Heat. They have a payroll for next season that is already set to be nearly $151.7 million because they signed a lot of ‘good but not great' veterans to long-term deals and it basically capped their ceiling off at hoping to make the playoffs.
There is no guarantee that the Pacers would even be an effective team if they had the same team minus Oladipo. They had one of the easiest schedules in the league leading up to the All-Star break, but managed to go only 10-14 after that period. The results that they achieved particularly against a gauntlet of a schedule in late March and early April were genuinely concerning.
It would become even more difficult to justify running it back with the same group if teams like the Brooklyn Nets continue to rise and a superstar like Kevin Durant comes to the Eastern Conference in free agency. There would be a difficult first round opponent no matter what seed that Indiana would get and it probably would end in elimination.
Given the circumstances, the Pacers should look to use next season as an opportunity to build towards their future. Their organization has not given much playing time to young players in recent seasons. Providing those prospects with meaningful minutes would enable them to play through mistakes and that could lead to legitimate progress in their development.
A common theme that was heard throughout last season was that there just wasn't a spot for young players like Aaron Holiday, T.J. Leaf, Edmond Sumner, and Alize Johnson. It's difficult to know the current state of a young player's skill-set if they are unable to show it in real games when the lights are shining at their brightest.
“They're young, and right now there's not a spot,” Pacers coach Nate McMillan said in January. “The big thing for those guys is next year. But if you come back next year in that same role, it might really be an issue.”
A process that is focused on development could start with making Aaron Holiday the starting point guard and providing him with a substantial amount of playing time. With the UCLA product already turning 23-years-old in September, it would be ideal to see what he is capable of doing sooner rather than later.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_f6MHQK3Oo
The Pacers organization has strong belief in the UCLA product's skill-set and apparently a lot of teams around the league did as well. Many teams were calling about Holiday's availability at the trade deadline but were turned away by the team's President of Basketball Operations Kevin Pritchard.
It's not just upper-management executives of other franchises that appreciate what the 6'1″ scoring guard brings to the game. Larry Bird has even stated that he believes Holiday has ‘All-Star potential' and that is high praise coming from a member of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.
With the team's veteran point guards — Darren Collison and Cory Joseph — set to become free agents this summer, Indiana is facing an ideal opportunity to create significant minutes for their 2018 first round selection. Holiday has a goal of earning a starting role and clearing room in the rotation could make it easier for that to happen.
After the Pacers were eliminated from the playoffs by the Boston Celtics, Myles Turner left a raving review about Holiday to the media. He expressed confidence in his future with the organization and stated that he his expectations are high for his teammate.
“I love Aaron, man,” Pacers center Myles Turner said about Holiday. “He's just so poised. I feel like any position he's in, he can be himself. You can't make him speed up. You can't make him get out of character. I think he's going to be great for our organization the city as well. I have high hopes for him. He's going to play Summer League, he's going to work hard this summer and he's only going to continue to grow. He's been groomed to do so and he's going to make an impact here.”
Myles Turner: "There were times in some of these games where we didn't execute, and our offense just got really stagnant. You can play all the defense you want — you've got to put the ball in the hoop, end of the day." #Pacers pic.twitter.com/p3efYH4gr5
— Bally Sports Indiana (@BallySportsIN) April 21, 2019
Something that should not go unmentioned is the fact that Holiday was not able to showcase his abilities until one of the Pacers' guards missed games due to injury. It is difficult to believe that executives would have been blowing up Pritchard's phone if those injuries did not open up a need for Holiday to temporarily fill a spot in the rotation.
While there were plenty of positive flashes that Holiday showed during his rookie campaign, he was inconsistent a playmaker. He could show growth in those areas if he is able to receive a consistent role next season. A legitimate display of development could be enough for the Pacers to be positive that they already have their long-term starting point guard.
There are other young players like Leaf and Sumner that have not received much meaningful playing time that could benefit from being able to prove themselves, too. After a full season of being able to play through their mistakes, the Pacers' young players would be able to give the organization a much better look into their potential as prospects.
Indiana would have to let Tyreke Evans walk in free agency for Sumner to receive substantial playing time even after Oladipo returns to the lineup. According to the IndyStar, Evans has not made up his mind about leaving the team but what it would take for him to stay is not remotely worthwhile.
“Tyreke Evans leaves the door open that he'd consider coming back to play for the Indiana Pacers, but he'd have to be the player he was allowed to be in the last two games of their series sweep with the Boston Celtics.”
The problem with using Evans like he was used against the Celtics is that he received a massive 31.3% usage rate during the series. The team would be significantly sacrificing playing time for Edmond Sumner and stripping away potential playmaking involvement for key players like Myles Turner in favor of a shooting guard that will turn 30-years-old in September.
For a player that has only logged 212 total minutes of NBA regular season action, more experience is essential for Sumner. There will be a significant void at the shooting guard that would need to be filled while Oladipo is sidelined and it seems to be in the best interest of the organization's future to lean on Sumner as opposed to an aging veteran.
“I honestly just think I need the reps,” Sumner told The Athletic's Scott Agness in February. “The more comfortable I am out there, the more confident I’ll be. Basketball is really about being confident, honestly. You got here with your skills, it’s just about going out there and being confident with it and knowing that it’s just basketball at the end of the day.”
The 6'6″ guard showed great defensive promise against some marque matchups when given an opportunity while showing a real ability to get into the lane through his playmaking ability. He could be too good to deny as long as he can improve his jump shot after working with the profession skills trainer Joey Burton over the summer.
Relying on Sumner next season as a rotation player would also send a message to the players on the team's G League affiliate that the NBA franchise rewards their personnel for great production. He averaged an impressive 22.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 4.1 assists for the Fort Wayne Mad Ants in 26 games last season.
The Pacers would benefit from providing Leaf with consistent opportunity to prove himself next season before making a decision on his future with the organization. He has been unable to maintain a role in the team's rotation since being drafted 18th overall in the 2016 NBA Draft and failing to do so again next season after a full summer to improve would be troublesome.
It was a down year for Leaf as he averaged only 9.0 minutes in 58 regular season appearances. He continued to be a defensive liability and went from shooting 42.9% from three as a rookie to 25.8% in 2018-19. Entering his third season, it is vital that he makes improvements to his athleticism for defensive purposes and manages to sure up his shooting mechanics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5xr2NQVnLE&t=18s
Leaf played well enough to close the regular season to convince McMillan to start the playoff series against the Celtics with what he called a ‘nine-and-a-half-man rotation.' He was able to receive some first half minutes during the early stages of the series but Indiana ultimately went away from him and then Doug McDermott in Game 4 as well.
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There is a need for the Pacers to find a reliable stretch-four and that was the role that Leaf was drafted to play. Providing him with consistent playing time next season could result in positive surprises for all we know, but at the very least, it would help to show that he is either capable of providing the right type of impact or not.
A long-term building approach would also present an opportunity for Indiana to play whoever they select with the 18th pick in the upcoming draft. They rarely have given meaningful playing time for rookies and that has probably contributed to the team not having many of their selections resulting in being rotation players.
Another objective that the Pacers could resolve that has been a problem for multiple years now would be to involve Myles Turner more in their half-court offense. It would be an important step in his development to be able to show what he can do and play through his mistakes. He has received a usage rate below 20% in three consecutive seasons since having a career-high 20.5% usage rate as a rookie.
The simplest method of involving Turner more offensively would be to take notes from how the Milwaukee Bucks use Brook Lopez as a perimeter shooter. Turner's clip of 38.8% from deep is too good to only average 2.6 attempts. Seeking out opportunities for catch-and-shoot jumpers in spot-up and in the pick-and-pop would directly utilize the young center more and would make it easier for his teammates to get into the paint.
It seems that it will be up to McMillan to embrace Turner more as a three-point shooter. The coach stated at the beginning of the season that he doesn't want his center becoming a ‘magnet' with the three-point line and that he doesn't want him to ‘just sit behind the 3-point line and shoot 3s.'
“I want him to take the shot that’s open. I don’t want you to just sit behind the 3-point line and shoot 3s. I want you to play the game,” McMillan said in October. “If you’re open, I don’t mind him shooting that shot. I don’t mind Myles shooting that shot. I don’t want you running to that 3-point line. I thought there was some times last year with Myles, it just became a magnet. He didn’t play inside. Myles has been a really good mid-range shooter. We’ll take that.”
There are different dimensions of Turner's skill-set that would open up by becoming an established knockdown perimeter shooter. It starts with being able to fool big men with pump fakes that are recovering back from the paint or drop coverage back out to the perimeter. That is precisely what happened during the poster dunk that he had in the playoffs against the Celtics.
HOLY MYLES TURNER DUNK OF THE YEAR 😳☠️
pic.twitter.com/sKHwrGYrr7— Taylor Tannebaum (@TaylorTannebaum) April 21, 2019
Becoming more of an off the dribble shooter would help Turner become a more feared offensive weapon. He has not often used this aspect of his skill-set during his NBA career but has shown a variety of flashes a few times each season that he is more than capable of doing it. It seems like instilling confidence in him through being given a green light could be critical.
Myles Turner has been working on his 3-PT Pull-up….scary 👀 #ballislife pic.twitter.com/lIE3v58WFd
— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) August 16, 2018
Indiana will need to resolve the issues that they have when Turner is in the post if they want to get the most out of him near the basket. Teams will often switch when guarding screens and he will have a miss-match in the post and doesn't get the ball. They need to get better at making the entry pass and he needs to work on his post-up ability.
The ascension that Turner made to elite status as a defender happened because he managed to improve his athleticism significantly by changing his diet working hard in the weight room. While there is always room for athletic growth, the emphasis will likely be placed on his offensive skill-set. After a full summer of work, he should be ready for more offensive responsibility.
The Pacers need to figure out if it is viable long-term to play Turner and Domantas Sabonis together, or eventually trade one of them. Using next season as a reloading year while Oladipo rehabs from injury would enable them to play their two young big men for longer periods of time to make such a determination.
The problem with the Turner and Sabonis pairing is that unless there is significant changes to the makeup of their skill-sets over the summer, it likely will not work. Both players are centers and Sabonis does not have the attributes of a modern power forward, as McMillan has stated before the start of the season.
“That lineup is not really a strength of ours when teams are playing small basketball,” McMillan said in October. “There's been a lot of conversation about Myles and Domas…they play the same position. We can play that lineup some when teams have bigger (lineups) out there and we're able to match up with those teams. But that hasn't been a strong combination when those two have been out on the floor. You have two centers and one of them is trying to play the four spot.”
The dilemma is that it doesn't make sense to move a defensive anchor like Turner away from the paint as a rim protector and Sabonis may never be quick enough to handle the duties required of a modern power forward. Meanwhile, the spacing is consistently a nightmare on the other end of the floor and Turner is often tasked with just standing behind the perimeter or crowding the dunk spot.
While it appears that the pairing won't be appropriate for today's NBA, not testing it after a full offseason for the two players to improve may be impatient. The rationale for patience is that the narrative was surprisingly optimistic regarding the pairing late in the season. McMillan went from saying that the two playing together ‘hasn't been a strong combination' in October to being ‘comfortable' with it.
“I'm comfortable with any of the combinations of bigs we have our there,” McMillan said in April. “They've all played well together. We can match up with big teams or small teams with our versatility.”
If it becomes clear that it doesn't make sense to keep both Turner and Sabonis long-term, Indiana will have been able to reached that conclusion prior to the Gonzaga product reaching restricted free agency. They would be able to determine which player better fits what they are trying to build towards and receive assets in return at some point after trading the other away.
There are a substantial number of benefits for the Pacers to use next season to focus on the growth of their young players and to reach conclusions about important matters. It could lead to sustainable success with a higher ceiling and greater flexibility after Oladipo returns to the lineup and finds his form as a franchise player once again.
