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Well, here we are. The LA Clippers, the four-seed in the Western Conference with the third highest odds to win the NBA championship entering this postseason, are trailing the five-seed Dallas Mavericks 0-2 in the first round of the playoffs. Kawhi Leonard has been good. Paul George has been good. It hasn't mattered, because Luka Doncic and the Mavs' role players have been incredible.
The Clippers have dropped Games 1 and 2 by a combined 16 points. They held a three-point lead with five minutes remaining in Game 1 despite getting next to nothing from their role players most of the night and trailed by five with four minutes remaining in Game 2 despite Dallas shooting nearly 60 percent from the field and 58 percent from three up until that point. They've been in these games late despite being down 0-2.
The thing I glance at immediately through the first two games is the difference in two guys: Marcus Morris Sr. and Tim Hardaway Jr. Morris was a spectacular three-point threat in the regular season, finishing 3rd in the league in three-point percentage. Through two postseason games, he's been hard to find while Hardaway Jr. has been hard to miss.
Next, I took a look at the Mavs regular season numbers when it comes to shooting off the dribble, via Synergy…
Here's a look at Dallas' playoff shooting off the dribble numbers, via Synergy…
The Clippers shot 41.1 percent from three during the regular season (No. 1 ranked in NBA) while the Mavs shot 36.2 percent from three (No. 18 ranked).
Through two playoff games, the Mavs are shooting 50 percent from three (No. 1 ranked in the NBA) while the Clippers are shooting 32.9 percent from three (No. 11 ranked).
If all that wasn't enough, here's a look at the difference in both teams' regular season catch-and-shoot and pull-up three-point numbers. Again, it shows that Dallas has simply been off the charts while the best shooting team in the NBA can't find the basket.
All this essentially to say the Mavs role players have shot better than their season averages and one would hope, or at least expect, those to come back down to earth at some point. The problem is that point might come in the second round after sweeping the Clippers. Luka Doncic specifically has remained as disciplined as a 10-year veteran, repeatedly seeking out mismatches with Ivica Zubac, Patrick Beverley, as well as Reggie Jackson, and exploiting them. They've capitalized on, essentially, every single Clippers' defensive breakdown or lapse in coverage this series.
“I think the mistakes we're making, they've just been crucial,” Paul George said after Game 2. “I don't think they have missed many on mistakes we've made to bail us out. So, again, give them credit. They shot almost 60 tonight. They're making shots and if we don't dial in, if we don't honor the coverages, if we don't do a better job defensively, they're showing that we gonna pay for it.”
The Clippers have seemed indecisive on their defensive coverages starting with Doncic. They've blitzed him off screens very well at times only to miss rotations, leaving his teammates open for threes or dunks. They've played him 1-on-1 and sent head-scratching-timed help coverage only for him to find his teammates right away. To Dallas' credit, they're remaining patient, making the second or even third extra pass to get better looks for their shooters or rollers.
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“I mean, there's things we can do,” George added when asked about how hard it is to blitz Doncic and recover to their man. “But we've got to watch the tape. We got to see what it is that we're doing wrong. But he's seen every defense. He's seen every coverage. It's not like we're throwing something new at him. It's just — I give the credit to Luka, man, he's good, he's special. He knows how to see the floor and he's making them go.”
At this point, it seems the Clippers have a series-defining decision to make:
• They let Luka Doncic play one-on-one against anyone he's facing with no help coverage and let him score 40, 50, or heck, even 60 points if he can. The key here is being okay with Doncic having hot shooting spurts and living with them.
• They take away Luka Doncic, blitzing and trapping him off picks, and force the other guys that have beaten them all series to try and keep doing it. This, of course, would require the Clippers to have top-notch communication and understanding on the defensive end which, so far in this series, they have not.
“We gotta get stops,” Kawhi Leonard said after Game 2. “We have to get stops, we have to get stops, you're not gonna make every shot. It's the NBA, those coaches and their players over there, they're gonna make adjustments and get the ball out the best player's hands, or make it harder for him. But you gotta make them miss shots, we gotta play defense and shooting 58 percent from the field, 52 from three is just not gonna cut it.
“It’s not magic. We got to come out and play basketball. Like I said, get stops. That is the name of the game right now. They’re shooting too great in the first two games and we have to help each other. We have to help each other, too many straight-line drives, dunks, layups. We got to hang out hat on the defensive end. “
At some point, the Mavs shooting is expected to regress to the mean. The Clippers have to make sure that happens from the tip. They've got to make Dallas uncomfortable offensively from the start. They've got to drive the ball into the teeth of the defense just like they did in Game 2 when they finished with 60 points in the paint. For a second straight game, they have to limit offensive rebounding and second-chance points, which have come at backbreaking moments for the Clippers in this series.
Head coach Tyronn Lue should also give Terance Mann more minutes at the point guard position. Patrick Beverley has been picked on far too much while not providing much else on either end. Mann is a bigger, lengthier body that could give the Mavs a few more fits, as shown in the fourth quarter of Game 2. Rajon Rondo would also be a better guard option to play in place of Beverley, at least with the starting unit.
Ivica Zubac has also not looked great for the most part, so a small-ball lineup featuring Nicolas Batum more could be the way to go, especially if Serge Ibaka isn't healthy. Matching Zubac' minutes with Willie Cauley-Stein makes more sense for the Clippers on both ends of the floor. I don't think Zu is unplayable if Cauley-Stein isn't out there, but he's got to do a better job reading and reacting on the defensive end if he's going to be out there.
Game 3 on Friday night tips off at 6:30 PM PST. That game will make or break the Clippers season. We'll find out a lot about this team, their mental toughness, and their basketball IQ that Kawhi Leonard harped on improving at the end of last postseason.
