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The Los Angeles Lakers are 5-0 in the NBA In-Season Tournament and have outscored their opponents by 77 points. LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Austin Reaves — with a major assist from the officials — helped the Lakers secure a spot in the semifinals (and a $100,000 cash prize) via a nail-biting victory over the Phoenix Suns, setting up a clash with the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday in Las Vegas.
The Pelicans are coming off an impressive, balanced 127-117 road victory over the Sacramento Kings in the quarterfinals on Monday. Six players scored in double figures, as New Orleans shot 54.0% from the field.
“They're a well-balanced team,” said Darvin Ham. “They reflect their coach [Willie Green]. Hard-nosed, goes about his business.”
The matchup at T-Mobile Arena will mark the first meeting between the Lakers (13-9) and Pelicans (12-10) of 2023-24. The Lakers, 5-8 against teams with winning records, opened as -1.5 favorites, per FanDuel. Both teams, as healthy as they've been all season, are deep, versatile, and long.
Undoubtedly, the atmosphere in the building will heavily lean Lakers.
“We feel like wherever we go it’s a home game for us,” said Anthony Davis.
Here are three bold predictions ahead of the In-Season Tournament semifinal showdown.
3. The Lakers will need to rally
Following a draining 40 minutes on Tuesday, LeBron admitted to feeling fatigued.
“That game last night took a lot out of me, physically and mentally,” he told reporters on Wednesday.
Darvin Ham's says "somewhere in between" when asked about his willingness to play his main guys – particularly LeBron James – for the IST like he would for a playoff game vs. a regular-season game: pic.twitter.com/aM9uzBPu4H
— Khobi Price (@khobi_price) December 7, 2023
Slow starts have plagued the Lakers in the majority of their games. Benefiting from an extra day of rest, I could see the Pelicans jumping out to a fast start and building a double-digit lead in the first half. The Lakers, as they often do, will rely on a timely spark from Reaves to close the gap. As long as they keep things close, LeBron (offensively) and AD (defensively) will take care of business in crunchtime.
Remember: LeBron absolutely wants to add In-Season Tournament Champion and MVP to his unprecedented CV.
2. The Lakers will keep Brandon Ingram in check
Ingram is playing high-level hoops — as a scorer and multi-dimensional playmaker. Over the past seven contests, BI is averaging 23.3 points, 6.1 assists, and 5.3 rebounds. He slayed the Kings with 30 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists. He's got a cadre of spacers around him, especially now that Trey Murphy III and C.J. McCollum are back.
On paper, the Lakers have the proper personnel of large wings to match up with Ingram: Jarred Vanderbilt, Cam Reddish, Taurean Prince — plus LeBron and AD, if necessary. Reaves, Reddish, and Max Christie will likely share duties on McCollum. Solid options, too. (Reddish and Alvarado will hopefully produce a few moments of sneaky thievery in the backcourt.)
“You really have to play at a high level on both sides of the ball,” said Ham. “Their physicality, their speed … they have these long athletic wings.”
Dealing with Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas, on the other hand, pose loftier challenges. For all the Lakers' length, switchability, and IQ on defense, they lack girth inside. It'll be up to LeBron, Davis, and Hachimura to bring the physicality, while Vando, Reddish, Christie, and others help crash the glass. (That's assuming Zion, second in the NBA in points in the paint, plays more assertively than he did in Sacramento; 10 points, 28 minutes, no free throw attempts, fourth-quarter benching.)
1. This won't be a barn-burner
While the NBA is surely pleased about the Lakers' presence in Vegas, the West semifinal won't be an electric offensive explosion.
For one thing, both teams have adequate individual matchups for the opposition. With the obvious caveat that star players can't truly be shut down, Herb Jones would be a high selection in a draft of players to guard LeBron, in part due to his adeptness in pick-and-roll scenarios. Valanciunas is the type of bruising center that can bully AD. I already mentioned the Lakers' defensive options.
Neither side tends to light it up offensively. The Pelicans are 13th in points per game with the 14th-ranked offensive rating, Lakers are 20th/24th. Both teams shoot a high percentage from the field but are bottom-five in 3s per game. The Lakers are one of the premier halfcourt defensive teams in basketball, while the Pelicans, when at full strength, have that capability. The game will carry a playoff intensity. Both sides will coach and gameplan akin to a postseason game (even though it counts as a regular season game).
The over/under total opened at 230, per FanDuel. Give me the under, and the Lakers advancing to one step closer to the NBA Cup.
Prediction: Lakers 104, Pelicans 98
