The Memphis Grizzlies have a track record of finding diamonds in the second round. One of their latest discoveries is quickly making a case that his value extends far beyond the current wages. With an All-Rookie year on the resume and another productive season underway, Jaylen Wells should strongly consider pushing for a contract extension worth roughly $15 million annually this summer.
Selected with the 39th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, Wells has outperformed his draft slot in ways that typically command top dollar on the open market. The Grizzlies will not let Wells hit free agency soon. According to Tuomas Iisalo, EVP Zach Kleiman knows the going price for a starting caliber two-way wing and why Wells is the best fit around Beale Street.
“Jaylen is just extremely solid. (Wells) fits into different types of lineups because he doesn't need the ball to impact the game positively,” Iisalo explained. “He's knocking down open shots and also improved his mid-range scoring, which is high efficiency for him. Defensively, he's taken on different matchups. He's always been an on-ball specialist for us. Now, for the second year, his off-ball defense, his awareness, his disruption have really gotten better.”
That last sentence is the statistical argument in plain language. Wells is producing in his sophomore season to the tune of 12.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.8 three-pointers made, and 0.9 steals in 26.7 minutes per game. Those are the quiet numbers. The louder ones came when Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. were out. Wells averaged 14.3 points, 3.8 boards, and 2.0 assists while shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc in December. That three-point accuracy is up to 45.3% in February.
Wells has had three 20-point games in a five-game stretch and posted four steal games twice. He went 10-of-13 from the field for 25 points against the Miami Heat after the NBA All-Star break. The efficiency, not just the scoring, is what separates this run from ordinary production. Committing about one turnover per game despite the drastic increase in usage rate (20.8) is acceptable at this part of the process. Thankfully for the Grizzlies, the CBA's cap and a 10-year rolling comparison of second-round picks made good provide a great framework for a team-friendly deal.
Jaylen Wells, Grizzlies on the clock
Herb Jones, the 35th pick in 2021 by New Orleans, signed a four-year, $54 million extension ($13.5 million AAV) after two seasons averaging 10 points and strong defense. Andrew Nembhard, selected 31st in 2022 by Indiana, inked a three-year, $59 million deal ($19.7 million AAV) following a sophomore year with 9.5 points and 4.5 assists. Ayo Dosunmu, the 38th pick in 2021 by Chicago, secured a three-year, $21 million contract ($7 million AAV) after similar 3-and-D production.
Isaiah Joe (49th, 2020) signed a three-year, $30 million deal ($10 million AAV) with Oklahoma City; Aaron Wiggins (55th, 2021) agreed to a five-year, $47 million extension ($9.4 million AAV). Wells should demand a number near the top end of that scale. If his February surge (51.6% FG, 44.9% 3PT) carries into the offseason, that $15 million target may prove conservative.
For the Grizzlies, extending Wells now aligns with building around cost-controlled talent amid salary cap constraints. It's a contract that would immediately hold first-round value. For Wells, pushing for $15 million AAV capitalizes on his momentum before injuries or roster changes alter his leverage. Unrestricted free agency is still a long way away, and that would be a huge gamble for such a small return under the NBA CBA's Estimated Average Player Salary structuring.
However, there is no telling where this organization will be a year from now, nor can anyone assure the 22-year-old (birthday in August) has a significant role in it. So lock in the middle ground money first. Haggle over the player options until Labor Day. Either way, this should be done before training camp opens. There should be some security in place to cover the prime years before Wells risks another crazy accidental injury.
