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The NBA Play-In Tournament is coming down to a wire, as there are now only two spots remaining in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. The four teams left fighting for those last two spots will have their final chance to officially clinch a spot in the postseason on Friday night. In the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat are set to host the Chicago Bulls, which means it is time for some Heat Play-In Tournament predictions.
Miami finished the regular season with a 44-38 record, earning it the No. 7 seed in the East in the process. The 2022-23 campaign was a pretty big step back for the Heat, as they won nine fewer games than they did last season when they were the top seed in the East. Still, the Heat were heavily favored to beat the Atlanta Hawks in their first Play-In Tournament contest, but they ended up losing 116-105, forcing them to try to beat the winner of the 9-10 game in the East for a chance at the eight seed.
On the other side of the matchup, Chicago went 40-42 to secure the No. 10 seed and the final Play-In spot in the East. Similar to the Heat, the Bulls had six fewer wins than they did last season, but could salvage what was seemingly a lost season by sneaking into the playoffs. The Bulls traveled to Canada to face the Toronto Raptors in their first Play-In Tournament game, and overcame a 19-point deficit to win 109-105.
Although Miami has a home-court advantage in these two teams upcoming matchup, Chicago could have some momentum on their side after winning their first Play-In game. As we saw on Wednesday night, win-or-go-home games can always bring some surprises. So with that being said, here are some bold predictions for the Miami Heat in their 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament game versus the Chicago Bulls.
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3. The Heat will have early problems containing DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine
Following the Bulls win over the Raptors, it's clear that the Heat are going to have to pay extra attention to Zach LaVine in this one. The star guard scored 30 out of his 39 points against the Raptors in the second half, and was the driving force that led Chicago to their aforementioned comeback.
During the regular season, LaVine averaged 24.8 points, 4.5 boards, and 4.2 assists per game. He made 48.5 percent of his field goals, 37.5 percent of his 3-pointers, and 84.8 percent of his free throws. In the two games between the Heat and Bulls in the regular season, LaVine averaged 19.5 points, seven assists, and five rebounds per game on 56-43-83 shooting splits.
The problem is that even if Miami can contain LaVine, the Bulls still have DeMar DeRozan to lead the offense. DeRozan averaged 24.5 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game for Chicago during the regular season, which helped him earn the sixth All-Star selection of his career. In their win over Toronto, DeRozan played an important role behind LaVine, scoring 23 points on 10-of-19 shooting while grabbing seven boards, dishing out three assists, and picking up two blocks as well.
Given how well they played against the Raptors, chances are the Heat will have a tough time defending this duo. While LaVine might not have as big of an big individual outing as he did against Toronto, combining his scoring with DeRozan's should be enough to keep the Bulls offense going against a stingy Heat defense.
2. Jimmy Butler leads the Heat with a 25-5-5 performance
With the Heat unexpectedly preparing for their second Play-In game, it's clear they will need all they can get from Jimmy Butler. Butler struggled mightily against Atlanta, and is a big reason why they find themselves in a do-or-die game against Chicago now.
During the 2022-23 season, the six-time All-Star averaged 22.9 points per game, his best mark since joining the franchise, while also grabbing 5.9 rebounds and handing out 5.3 assists per game. To top that off, Butler made a career-high 53.9 percent of his field goals.
Against the Hawks, though, Butler looked awful. While he managed to rack up 21 points in this one, he only shot 6-for-19 from the field, missing several big shots that he would typically hit. Butler made contributions elsewhere, picking up nine assists, four rebounds, two steals and a block, but his scoring struggles killed Miami's offense against Atlanta.
After an upset loss in the first Play-In game, Miami needs Butler to step up on Friday. The bold prediction is that he will answer the call and go off with a 25-5-5 performance. Should that happen, the Heat will be in a good position to advance to the playoffs.
1. The Heat-Bulls game will be decided by less than 10 points
In the regular season, the Bulls swept the Heat, winning each of their three head-to-head battles, two of which were played at the then FTX Arena (now known as the Kaseya Center). The Bulls have proven they can beat the Heat on the road this season, and with so much at stake in this game, it is difficult to imagine anything other than a hard-fought battle between these two teams.
According to FanDuel, Miami is the favorite to win this game. Currently, the spread is set at -5.5 in the Heat's favor, which is extremely close to what it was set at in their game against Atlanta. Regardless of that, this shows that many people are expecting this contest to be a close one.
This should result in another Play-In thriller, and we have already gotten quite a few to kick off the 2023 NBA Playoff season. Expect this game to come down to the final few possessions, and it wouldn't be totally surprising to see it go to overtime either. At the end of the day, this contest will be decided by less than 10 points, and it should be an entertaining one to keep an eye on.
