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The No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks and No. 6 Miami Heat will meet in the first round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs in a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Semifinals. As most people would remember, the Heat took down the high-flying Bucks in five games as they heroically made a run all the way to the NBA Finals.
Miami has been a much different team in 2020-21 in numerous categories, while Milwaukee is stronger as a whole after upgrading from Eric Bledsoe to Jrue Holiday in the offseason while adding more shooters.
While both squads went 8-2 to end the campaign, here are three reasons why the Bucks will dominate in this seven-game series.
Revenge in The Minds of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
After finishing as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference last season, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks shockingly exited out in the second round. They were absolutely rolling before the pandemic shut down the league for a few months. Once basketball returned, Milwaukee really struggled. The difference this time around is that the Bucks are playing tremendous basketball right now and they get to cruise right into playoffs with that momentum.
Not only do the Bucks have a dominant two-way guard in their backcourt in Holiday, but The Greek Freak and the rest of this team will also have revenge on their minds.
Antetokounmpo averaged 21.8 points and 11.0 rebounds per game last year against the Heat in the East Semis, but to put it lightly, he looked off. Giannis was committing way too many turnovers while shooting just 21.7% from deep. Antetokounmpo also missed Game 5 due to an injury.
We know he committed his long-term future to this franchise in the hope of winning a title. Last year's performance in Orlando was a sheer disappointment. The Bucks also went to absolute work against Miami during the regular season, winning two out of three. In those wins, they outscored Erik Spoelstra's squad by 61 points.
The Heat were also a top-10 offense and defense a year ago. This season, they're not in that same conversation. Jimmy Butler and Co. were dreadful against teams above .500 in 2020-21, compiling a 12-21 record. Last season? Miami went 17-14 vs. clubs over the .500 mark.
Even though Butler didn't play in any of the three meetings with the Bucks all season, expect Giannis to win this battle and get revenge. You better believe Milwaukee has been preparing for this opponent, and I have no doubts they're going to dominate with a fundamentally sound team on both sides of the ball.
Bucks Are More Dominant on The Glass
We're looking at two completely different organizations in terms of productivity on the boards. The Bucks were second in the Association with 48.1 rebounds per game, while the Heat ranked 29th. While this is a similar situation to last season when these two teams met, Bam Adebayo hasn't been that same dominant figure on the glass this season. For Milwaukee, they have numerous guys throughout the roster who grab boards.
Antetokounmpo has 11 per contest, while Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Donte DiVincenzo are all averaging over five rebounds a game. The Bucks are very physical inside while possessing more overall size. It should play a factor in this series.
Bucks Make it Rain From Downtown
Last season, Milwaukee was 17th in the league in 3-point percentage. In 2020-21, Mike Budenholzer's team has been one of the most feared shooting squads in the NBA, ranking fourth with a 38.9% clip. Holiday has been a big help on that front, shooting just a tad under 40% from long range, while Portis, Middleton, and Bryn Forbes are all shooting well over 40% as well.
The Bucks have a lot more shooters around Antetokounmpo this season. They simply didn't have these players who could pull up and hit 3s from all over the floor during the playoffs last year. While the Heat aren't awful at defending the 3-ball (16th in the league), they're going to have a tall task at hand with a boatload of different guys who can make it rain.
Keep in mind, Miami can get hot from deep, but they're far less consistent this season. While the Bucks allow their opponents to hit quite a bit of 3-land, their own ability to shoot it efficiently will play a key part in advancing.
The Bucks have been consistent for the majority of the campaign. Miami has not. This is Milwaukee's time to shine as they eye a title run, and the first step will be getting past last year's East finalists.
