Fresh off an excellent Game 4 performance despite the Minnesota Timberwolves' 128-126 defeat to the Oklahoma City Thunder that has them now down 3-1 in the 2025 Western Conference Finals, Nickeil Alexander-Walker's stock continues to rise. Alexander-Walker dropped 23 points on 9-15 shooting from the field and 5-8 from beyond the arc, providing the Timberwolves with a much-needed offensive boost as well as his customary brand of stout perimeter defense.

The Timberwolves aren't yet about to think about their offseason plans. They are still alive in the 2025 NBA playoffs even though they're in life support, after all. However, the front office must know that the team is on a ticking clock; they have been up against the second tax apron for multiple years and are in danger of paying an inordinate amount of money just to keep their current core together.

With that said, it looks as though Alexander-Walker's days with the Timberwolves are going to be numbered. According to Bobby Marks of ESPN, “there’s going to be a strong market” for Alexander-Walker in free agency, as he will be one of this year's top free-agent guards due to a lack of depth in free agency.

Marks also pointed out that 16 teams should have access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception worth $14.1 million during the 2025-26 campaign, which would be a worthwhile contract to offer to Alexander-Walker, a 3-and-D guard with proven playoff viability.

Will the Timberwolves decide to keep Alexander-Walker even if it pushes them past the second tax apron? This will incur a plethora of financial penalties and would put them in quite the difficult spot, roster-building wise. They will also have to think about the new contract they're going to have to offer Naz Reid, who can decide to enter free agency by declining his player option worth around $15 million for next season.

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Timberwolves are feeling the squeeze of the new CBA

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) reacts against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first half during game four of the western conference finals for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Target Center.
Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Timberwolves were proactive in maintaining flexibility, protecting themselves from the harsh penalties that came with breaching the tax aprons in the new CBA. They traded Karl-Anthony Towns away for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo just as Towns' supermax extension was kicking in.

But with Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, and Randle locked into huge deals that are already worth around $154 million next season (total), the Timberwolves are not going to have a lot of options moving forward if they want to duck underneath the second apron next season. Reid will be commanding a huge deal as well, and considering the team's roster makeup, they may have to prioritize him over Alexander-Walker.