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Victor Wembanyama entered the NBA with crazy expectations as a 7'4″ French phenom, and he immediately delivered in his rookie campaign (21.4 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 3.9 APG, 46.5 FG%), proving why he's one of the most hyped basketball prospects in recent memory. While the San Antonio Spurs finished with just a 22-609 record, it was enough for voters to unanimously give him the Rookie of the Year award.
As impressive as Wemby's rookie season was, one can only assume that this was just the beginning. With a bright future ahead of him, is it too early to predict whether Wembanyama has enough in him to eventually pass LeBron James as the NBA's all-time leading scorer?
Is Victor Wembanyama destined for a career similar to Tim Duncan?
The comparisons between Wembanyama and Tim Duncan are hard to ignore. Like Wemby, Duncan was a number one overall pick of the Spurs, won Rookie of the Year honors, and averaged 21 points per game in his rookie season. However, there are a few key differences. Duncan played all 82 games in his rookie campaign and averaged 10 more minutes per game than Wembanyama. Nevertheless, both players showed similar promise early in their careers for the same franchise.
Since it's physically impossible to predict how durable a player can be, let's assume Wemby follows Duncan’s footsteps in terms of durability and longevity. For Duncan's career, he played 19 seasons appearing in 89 percent of his team’s games, which translates to an average of 72 games per season. Assuming Wembanyama does the same, we should expect him to play until the age of 39.
When will Victor Wembanyama hit his prime?
The next assumption that needs to be made is how many points Wembanyama can average each season as he enters his prime. In the NBA, players typically hit their scoring prime in their late 20s to early 30s. Research shows that most athletes reach their peak during this period, and with Wemby’s potential, it’s plausible to suggest that he will significantly improve as he matures.
For the sake of this projection and the NBA's commitment to offense, let’s assume that over the next nine years, Wemby increases his scoring output, eventually peaking at an average of 27 points per game by the time he turns 30, which is a conservative estimate given that many great players such as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis have seen their averages climb higher as their careers progressed.
Once Wemby hits his prime, let's assume his level of production mirrors Duncan's career. With this assumption, we can assume that Wemby’s scoring averages will dip gradually by around two points per season as he ages, but he'll never average less than 15 points per game only until his final season.
Calculating Victor Wembanyama's career scoring total
Based on the assumptions mentioned earlier, we can estimate that Wemby will average 23.9 points per game over the course of his career. Given the assumption that he will play 72 games per season and play until he's 39, this equates to approximately 32,241 career points.
If for some reason the current top 10 list experiences zero changes 19 years from now, Wemby's point total would rank him as the sixth-highest scorer in NBA history, just 50 points behind Michael Jordan, who currently sits in fifth place with 32,292 points. While this projection doesn’t come close to James’ all-time scoring record, it does still put Wemby in a rare breed of players who managed to score over 30,000 points.
Whether Wemby finishes his career with 32,000 points or more, his success will be measured by how many rings he can win and the impact he makes on the game as one of the most exciting prospects in modern NBA history.
