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The Utah Jazz enter their first round matchup against the Dallas Mavericks as the favorites. That's despite the Mavs holding home court advantage. The line initially opened with Dallas as the betting favorites, but news of Luka Doncic's injury changed that. It's still not known exactly if Doncic will return in time for this series, but it sounds less and less likely. That's obviously a huge development between a Jazz-Mavs first round playoff matchup that was sure to be extremely close.
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The injury has obviously tipped the scales in the Jazz's favor. But by no means is Dallas going to throw in the towel. They are a proud franchise with a bombastic owner. The Mavs still have a lot of talent and Utah is going to have to play well to defeat the Mavs in this series.
Here are our three Utah Jazz bold predictions for their first round series against the Mavs.
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3 Bold Predictions for Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks in First Round of NBA Playoffs
1. Mavs average under 100 points per game for the series
The Utah Jazz boast one of the better defenses in the NBA this season. This season, the Mavericks and Jazz squared off four times, with each team winning twice. However, there were some very serious stark differences between the games.
The Mavs offense got a big boost after the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Spencer Dinwiddie has made an even greater impact than I think even Mark Cuban thought he would. During the second half of the season, Dallas' points per game were up exactly five points per game. Much of that has to do with Dinwiddie providing consistent offensive production. Luka Doncic finally had a running mate that can get his own shot.
In the two wins vs. the Jazz, both after the trade, Doncic had monster games, scoring over 30 points in each. But in the two losses, Doncic was held to 23 points in one of them and missed the other due to injury.
The Mavericks could sit Luka Doncic out of Game 1 and 2 to prevent further injury, via ESPN.
Brutal. pic.twitter.com/8a0hfh4Xo7
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) April 14, 2022
Despite some reports that he might return, the injury Doncic is dealing with is the same injury that cost Jazz big man Rudy Gobert three weeks earlier this season. Without him in the lineup, the Dallas offense is going to struggle mightily. Dallas will have to rely on Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson as their leading scorers against an elite Jazz defense. If you are a betting man, take the under all series long and you should make some money.
2. Donovan Mitchell makes a statement
This season, there has been so much talk about the emergence of Ja Morant with the Grizzlies. I am not taking anything away from Morant, he is an exceptional talent. But Mitchell is one of the best pure scorers in the NBA and people seem to have forgotten about him.
Over the last month, Mitchell took his game to an even higher level. He averaged almost 28 points per game, knocking down 3.5 triples per game. Dallas did a decent job against him in two of the four games this year, both Mavericks victories. Doncic happened to go off on those nights. Making shots allowed Dallas to set their defense. Utah could not get out and run. Without Doncic, the Jazz will have many more opportunities in the fast break.
I fully expect Mitchell to look more like the 34-point-per-game guy we saw in their two wins vs. Dallas.
3. The Jazz win the series in 5 games
I have written at length here the importance of Doncic to the Mavericks success. But there is another aspect to all of this playing in Utah's favor. The huge mismatch in the paint.
Gobert is obviously one of the best defensive players in the league. He finished third in the NBA in blocks per game with 2.1 and is seemingly always top five. The Mavericks rotate between Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber in the front court. Neither of which are very imposing. This should be an obvious advantage for Utah.
The odds in this series have swung vastly since the line first opened in Las Vegas. Utah is now -290 on FanDuel to win the series. Vegas is telling you, they are going to win the series. The question is in how many games. The fact that the Mavericks are likely without Doncic at least the first two games works in favor of the Jazz.
Utah could win both games on the road, then if Doncic even returns, it will be in Utah. Do not expect this series to last very long.
