The punchless Memphis Grizzlies have reached the point in a lost season where NBA Draft probabilities matter more than pride. With a 23-43 record and no realistic path to the postseason, the focus has shifted entirely to the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery. Fortunately for the front office, the remaining schedule all but assures another dozen odds-boosting defeats according to the bookies. However, it's the battles against the Chicago Bulls, Utah Jazz, and Milwaukee Bucks that matter most.
Tuomas Iisalo may want to scratch out some positive culture-building wins over the next few weeks, but the stakes in those games against other lottery-bound also-rans are enormous. Sitting eighth-worst in the league, Memphis currently holds a projected 6% chance at the top pick and a 7.2% shot at a top-four spot. Falling to the 10th pick is a realistic possibility as things stand.
The Grizzlies have a path to the fifth-worst record, which would bump those odds up considerably. EVP Zach Kleiman would go into the ping-pong party with a flat 10.5% shot at one of the top-four spots. Finishing below the Jazz in the standings would all but ensure a top-8 pick. Just clearing the Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans, two teams trying to win games down the stretch, gets Memphis to 9% odds for Cam Boozer, Darius Acuff, AJ Dybantsa, or Kingston Flemings.
Settling for Caleb Wilson or Nate Ament is a far better outcome than being left with taking either Mikel Brown Jr. or Brayden Burries. Nothing against either Brown Jr. or Burries, it's just that the Grizzlies are hoping to land a franchise cornerstone in a one-year reset, not take a chance on another late-lottery role player.
Grizzlies sour on Jazz notes
Chicago is still chasing respectability and has enough talent to win competitive games down the stretch. That March 16 trip to the Windy City kicks off the last hurrah of a team feeling the hurt. Iisalo's shorthand squad will face the Bulls again at the FedEx Forum on March 28. That matchup will be the sixth game in nine days for Memphis as well. Tired legs lead to late-season losses, so fans should not be too sour about the outcomes.
Memphis will have to get through an Easter Sunday away from the family, too. The Grizzlies will be dealing with the Bucks on April 5 while everyone else talks about the Final Four. Flying back to Beale Street for one last home game against the Cleveland Cavaliers (April 6) will lead to some lag. Those last three games, beginning at altitude in Denver before facing the Jazz and Houston Rockets, will likely sap the last bit of energy from whichever players are still left standing.
The margin for error in the race to the bottom is razor-thin, and these four games will ultimately decide just how high the Grizzlies can climb when the lottery balls are drawn. In a season defined by heartbreaking losses, the most important ones are still to come.
