Despite a late-year upset loss to Georgia, Alabama is on track to begin the 2026 March Madness Tournament with another top-four seed. The bid will be the team's sixth consecutive, tying a program-best streak.
The Tide hit a rough patch at the turn of the New Year, going just 4-3 in January to boot them from the AP Top 25 and into the bottom half of the SEC standings. The Charles Bediako drama did not help, but Nate Oats' team responded with an eight-game win streak in February to catapult itself to the top of the conference.
The Georgia loss dropped Alabama to 22-8 and 12-5 in the SEC with one game remaining in the regular season. The Tide need a win over Auburn on Senior Night to clinch the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament as they seek their third league title in the last six years.
Regardless of what happens in the tournament, a four or five-seed appears to be Alabama's floor. The Tide have only suffered one first-round exit in their last eight NCAA Tournament appearances.
While Alabama will be viewed as a dark-horse 2026 March Madness contender, it remains a flawed operation that has proven it can beat or lose to anybody on any given night. Oats has the personnel to reach his first Final Four, but he has to pray for the right matchups.
Alabama needs to be able to hit threes
As the nation's highest-scoring team, Alabama has the offensive firepower to beat anybody in the country on a good day. Nobody scores more than the Tide, which have reached 80 points in 26 of their 30 games to date. They are 18-1 when they score at least 90 points and undefeated when they breach 100.
Alabama's defense is another story, but its confidence in its ability to out-score teams tends to lead to track meets more often than not. Oats would love a better defense, but he is more than content with how everything is currently playing out.
Not only does Alabama score more than anyone else, but it also takes and makes threes more than any other team. The Tide take 54.4 percent of their shots from behind the arc, the most in the country, while playing at the fifth-fastest pace. That leads to 35.8 three-point attempts and 13.0 three-pointers made per game, both the most in Division I.
Alabama's three-point barrage has worked in its favor more often than not, but no national champion has ever attempted as many triples as it currently does. Their reliance on the long ball makes it difficult for most to take them seriously as NCAA Tournament threats, and it could also be their downfall.
The Crimson Tide have many other issues and have been bullied in the paint by bigger teams before. But if Alabama is going to make it back to the Final Four in the 2026 March Madness tournament, it has to pray that it will avoid the many stout three-point defenses in the field.
Alabama's nightmare March Madness scenario
If Alabama solves the Florida puzzle and wins another SEC title, it could fight its way into the two-seed range by Selection Sunday. Otherwise, Oats' team appears destined to begin the NCAA Tournament as a No. 3 or No. 4 seed.
Alabama has to pray to land in the South Region, as the East could be full of first-round trap games. The Tide desperately needs to avoid the stout three-point defenses of Merrimack, Navy and UNC Wilmington, which are all favored to win their conferences and clinch automatic NCAA Tournament bids.
Merrimack would be the worst possible first-round matchup for Alabama, as a top-30 scoring defense that is elite at forcing teams to play in the halfcourt. The Warriors have been one of the best teams at running opponents off the three-point line all year, allowing just 18.0 three-point attempts and 5.5 three-pointers made per game, which rank seventh and fifth in the country, respectively.
Navy and UNC Wilmington allow more attempts and three-pointers made per game, but both allow significantly lower conversion rates. Teams only made 29.7 percent of their triples against the Midshipmen, which ranks 11th in the country, and 29.4 percent against the Seahawks, the sixth-fewest.
Alabama also has to hope to avoid a second-round matchup against Saint Louis, another top-10 three-point defense. The Billikens are currently projected to fall in the seven to 10-seed range, which could pit them against the Crimson Tide in the Round of 32, depending on how the next week unfolds.
However, Alabama's biggest nightmare would be landing in the same region as Michigan. Regardless of who they have to face in the early rounds, the Wolverines are the only team that can stifle their long-range attempts — they allow opponents to hit just 29.5 percent of their three-point attempts — while enforcing their size on the other end. The Tide do not have the personnel to handle 7-foot-3 Aday Mara, 6-foot-9 Morez Johnson Jr. and 6-foot-9 Yaxel Lendeborg for 40 minutes.
While Alabama can look like the best team in college basketball in the blink of an eye, the wrong matchup could send it packing before the first week of March Madness concludes.
