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Well friends, it's time for the NCAA Tournament. It's time for the best theme in all of sports to become a month-long ear-worm. It's time for Masters commercials and it's time to watch one Thursday morning episode of The Price Is Right. It's time for hundreds of memorable mini-moments to eventually give way to One Shining Moment. It's time to kill some trees, print out some brackets, and then rip up said bracket because some seldom-discussed Cinderella busted it up. It's March Madness time, and I've got 67 games to make selections for and four regions to preview, so let's not waste anymore time!
South Region
Best Round 1 Matchup: 7. Marquette Golden Eagles vs. 10. New Mexico Lobos … I'll be lucky enough to be in the building in Cleveland for this matchup on Friday night to watch Second-Team All-American guard Kam Jones and Mountain West Player of the Year Donovan Dent go toe-to-toe in what could be the best individual matchup of the opening round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Add Shaka Smart doing defensive slides on the sideline into the equation, and this may end up being the most exciting game of the first weekend of March Madness.
Most Intriguing Mascot Matchup: 8. Louisville Cardinals vs. 9. Creighton Bluejays … Anyone who knows me on a personal level can tell you that my biggest fear is birds, so frankly, I'm downright frightened by this matchup between the Cardinals and Bluejays. I don't care who wins, as long as they all stay the hell away from me.
Cinderella, Is That You: 11-seed North Carolina Tar Heels … Guys, by now we should know how this works. Without fail, every year one team that the college basketball world declares shouldn't have made the NCAA Tournament to begin with ends up shutting everyone up for at least one weekend. This year it's going to be the Tar Heels, who were the one team I had left out of the field in my final Bracketology projections, who make a run to the Sweet Sixteen.
Three Bets for the Gamblers: Don't sleep on the Lipscomb Bisons giving Iowa State a run for their money in the opening round. Not only are the Cyclones without leading scorer Keshon Gilbert, but the Atlantic Sun has produced multiple round one winners in the past, including my alma mater, the FGCU Eagles in 2013 (Dunk City, baby!). At the very least, take Lipscomb +14.5. … As covered above, I like North Carolina against Ole Miss, so give me the Tar Heels -1.5 on Friday. … Yale won outright as a 13-seed last year. This year, I think the Bulldogs (+7.5) at least cover the spread, and potentially move on to face former star Danny Wolf and the Michigan Wolverines in the next round.
One Big-Ish Question: How worried should we be about Auburn's late-season skid? … Well if you ask me, we should be at least a little worried, especially with a pair of potential matchups against Creighton and Michigan in the Second Round and Sweet Sixteen on the horizon. Creighton and Michigan both have the size to offset some of the impact of Johni Broome, and if it's Louisville who advances to the Round of 32, the Cardinals will have the de facto home court advantage with the game being played in Lexington.
Auburn had the best resume of any team in the field, and for a large chunk of the season, they were the best team in the country. But I don't think the Tigers make the trip to San Antonio for the Final Four.
The Winner: Michigan State Spartans … January, February, Izzo, April, May, etc. Give me Tom Izzo and Sparty.
West Region
Best Round 1 Matchup: 7. Kansas Jayhawks vs. 10. Arkansas Razorbacks … There are much better matchups from a pure basketball standpoint in Round 1 in the West Region, but from a pure history standpoint, it's hard to overlook Kansas vs. Arkansas, which doubles as a third NCAA Tournament meeting between Bill Self and John Calipari. Self and the Jayhawks topped Coach Cal's Memphis Tigers in the 2008 Final. In the 2012 Championship, Cal got his revenge as the head coach of the Kentucky Wildcats. Now in Arkansas, Calipari has the chance to put an end to Bill Self's most disappointing season to date in Lawrence.
Most Intriguing Mascot Matchup: 4. Maryland Terrpins vs. 13. Grand Canyon Antelopes … We've all heard the story of the Tortoise and the Hare, as our slow, shelled friend managed to beat the speedy mammal in a race, presumably because the Hare has ADHD and kept getting distracted and/or burnt out. But it turns out, a Hare can only run 35 miles per hour. Conversely, an Antelope runs nearly 60 miles per hour. So how could a Terrapin possibly be expected to keep pace in that race?
Cinderella, Is That You: 11-seed Drake Bulldogs … I'd lecture you on learning the name Bennett Stirtz, but surely by now, with over a week and a half gone since Drake won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, you've heard that lecture from enough analysts. But Stirtz truly does have March Madness Cult Hero potential. Drake relies on him just as much as Davidson leaned on Stephen Curry 17 years ago when Davidson made a run to the Elite Eight. If Drake is going to make a deep run this year, Stirtz will be a full-blown college hoops superstar by the end of their ride.
Three Bets for the Gamblers: If you think Drake is going to give Missouri a game, or if you think the Bulldogs can win outright, consider looking at the total going Under 132.5. Drake will want to grind this one to a halt. … Florida could get to 100 points with a C+ effort against Norfolk state, so give me Over 154 in their matchup with Norfolk State. … There's no official line on this, but give me over 47.5 mentions that Rick Pitino and John Calipari have no love lost for one another if St. John's and Arkansas play in the Round of 32.
One Big-Ish Question: Are we talking enough about UConn's three-peat bid? … The answer is no, we're not, and that's because for UConn to three-peat, they'd need to become just the fifth 8-seed ever to make the Final Four, and the first since 1985 to win the whole damn thing. It's not just that UConn is an 8-seed this year, though. The Huskies haven't resembled a Final Four team on more than a handful of occasions this season, and with a path that would include getting past the Florida Gators, the Maryland Terrapins, and potentially St. John's — who UConn is 0-2 against this year — a three-peat just isn't in the cards for Dan Hurley and co.
The Winner: St. John's Red Storm … Just one year ago, the Johnnies were left out in the cold on Selection Sunday, but this season, New York's Team left no doubt about their place in the NCAA Tournament field, the Big East, or the Nation. St. John's rolled to a Big East regular season title, followed that up with a Big East Tournament title, and are now a 2-seed for the first time since 2000. Now Rick Pitino has the Johnnies ready to make their first Final Four trip in 40 years.
East Region
Best Round 1 Matchup: 6. BYU Cougars vs. 11. VCU Rams … Just about every year there's at least one matchup in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament that features a pair of teams you pegged ahead of time as potential Cinderella candidates. For me, last year that matchup was Northwestern vs. FAU. In 2021, it was Loyola Chicago vs. Georgia Tech. All the way back in 2011 it was Butler vs. Old Dominion. And let me tell you, each year, you end up on the wrong side of it.
This year, that matchup is BYU and VCU. By just about any metric, it's one of the most competitive matchups of the opening round, featuring a pair of teams that have both been hot, combining for an 18-2 record since mid-February. VCU wins with defense, but BYU can light it up from deep. If the Rams can minimize the damage that the Cougars do from three-point range, an 11-over-6 upset could be coming.
Most Intriguing Mascot Matchup: 7. Saint Mary's Gaels vs. 10. Vanderbilt Commodores … A rare human mascot versus human mascot matchup pits a mischievous Irish warrior against a steamship entrepreneur. While I'm excited to watch these two square off on the hardwood for the chance to advance to the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament, it would feel more appropriate if we got to watch a Gael and a Commodore arm-wrestling at a coastal saloon in the early 1900's.
Cinderella, Is That You: 11-seed VCU Rams … Head coach Ryan Odom facilitated one of the biggest NCAA Tournaments ever back in 2018 when he led UMBC past top-seeded Virginia in the opening round, and 14 years ago the Rams made a shocking run to the Final Four. While they may not have the juice to get quite as far this time around, I wouldn't be totally stunned if VCU made a trip to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Remember, though, VCU has to get through an either-or game against BYU first, so consider the Cougars as an alternate to this pick as well.
Three Bets for the Gamblers: Arizona's NCAA Tournament woes in the Tommy Lloyd era are well-documented, and unfortunately for the Wildcats, the Akron Zips provide a difficult opening round matchup. Give me Akron +14.5, and if you're feeling really bold, ride the Zips moneyline (+700) to a nice payday. … On the topic of Arizona-Akron, an Over/Under total of 167 may look intimidating, but Over 167 feels like a smart play … In four of his last five NCAA Tournament appearances, head coach Dana Altman has led the Oregon Ducks to at least the Sweet Sixteen. Take Oregon (+250) to return to the Sweet Sixteen.
One Big-Ish Question: How much of a concern is the left ankle of Cooper Flagg? … In fairness, this isn't a Big-Ish question. This is a monumental, championship-defining question that could very well end up being the story of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Duke may have been able to hold off North Carolina and Louisville without the best player in the country, but navigating the three-week grind that is the NCAA Tournament will be a much different story.
Simply put, if Flagg isn't 100 percent, or if he re-injures his ankle and is forced to miss any time over the next two weekends, I may need to re-evaluate this upcoming pick.
The Winner: Duke Blue Devils … Making this prediction assuming that Flagg will be healthy, though with that said, Duke's road to the Final Four doesn't look as daunting as that of the other three #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
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Midwest Region
Best Round 1 Matchup: 4. Purdue Boilermakers vs. 13. High Point Panthers … The M.O. for the High Point Panthers each of the last few seasons has been great regular season team, falls short in the conference tournament. Now High Point has gotten over the Big South Tournament hurdle, and they're in prime position to pull off an opening round upset over the Purdue Boilermakers.
High Point has some size to throw at Purdue forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, and the Panthers, who boast the second-best offensive rating in the nation, will be able to keep pace with a Purdue squad that can score, but also has given up at least 75 points on 12 different occasions this season. Kezza Giffa could end up being a March Madness cult hero, and head coach Alan Huss may soon find himself coaching at a much bigger program.
Most Intriguing Mascot Matchup: 2. Tennessee Volunteers vs. 15. Wofford Terriers … When I hear “Volunteers” and “Terriers” in the same sentence, I think about adopting a dog, not watching a basketball game. But in this case, I'll just cuddle up on the couch with my 13-year-old dog Olive and watch Wofford try to pull off a massive Round 1 upset over Rick Barnes and the Vols.
Cinderella, Is That You: 8-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs… After over a decade of coming into the NCAA Tournament as a perennial championship favorite, the Bulldogs are now back in the role in which they were introduced to us in back in 1999, when the Zags marched to the Elite Eight on the backs of Matt Santangelo, Richie Frahm and Casey Calvary, who sealed Gonzaga's trip to the Elite Eight with a game-winning tip-in over Florida.
Now the question is, after 26 years, does the slipper still fit?
Three Bets for the Gamblers: Unless you love Houston, take a look at Gonzaga (+340) to make the Sweet Sixteen … Even if you're scared about taking High Point over Purdue (I'm not), consider taking the over on High Point's point total (72.5) either way … I'm assuming that despite what he says, UCLA head coach Mick Cronin has eyes for the Villanova head coaching position, so as he says goodbye to Hollywood, give me the Utah State moneyline (+190) on Thursday night.
One Big-Ish Question: Can Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes, who hasn't been to a Final Four since 2003, be trusted in the NCAA Tournament? … I'll let Roy Kent handle this one.
The Winner: Clemson Tigers … I felt obligated to avoid chalk somewhere along the way, and Clemson felt like the right team to pull the trigger on. For the last month, I haven't been able to get that win over Duke out of my head, and I told myself then that as long as the Tigers had a decent draw, I'd strongly consider them as a Final Four contender. The draw isn't necessarily the easiest — starting with a dangerous matchup against the 12th-seeded McNeese Cowboys — but I don't think it's one Clemson can't overcome. Give me the Tigers heading to the Final Four.
Final Four
The Championship Game: 25 years after cutting down the nets for the first time, Tom Izzo brings another trophy to East Lansing, getting the Michigan State Spartans and the entire Big Ten Conference the National Championship victory they've been waiting a quarter-century for. Enjoy the madness!
