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An underwhelming season in Bloomington has quickly turned into both an emotional and intriguing one in 2024-25. The Hoosiers struggled mightily at the beginning of the season, as their equally talented and expensive roster struggled to mesh together during non-conference play and at the beginning of the challenging Big Ten slate.
In the middle of the season, head coach and Indiana alum Mike Woodson announced that this is his final season and he will be stepping down at its conclusion. As Indiana struggled, it looked like that end may come at the end of the Big Ten Tournament or with an unceremonious NIT berth.
Since then, Indiana has gone 5-3 and has played some of its most inspired basketball, with all three losses coming against projected tournament teams by a combined 16 points. The Hoosiers have given themselves a chance to play their way into the NCAA Tournament with a nice week in Indianapolis.
Indiana may not need a deep run in the conference tournament, but it would be wise to avoid an early loss as well. Here's a glance at the Hoosiers' tournament resume and what they need to accomplish in the Big Ten Tournament.
Indiana's NCAA Tournament resume
Indiana enters conference tournament play with a 19-12 overall record and an even 10-10 split in the Big Ten. During that time, like most bubble teams, the Hoosiers have picked up multiple impressive wins — a road win at Michigan State and a home victory over Purdue to name a few — and have also suffered some losses in winnable games against Iowa and Northwestern.
After all the dust settled from the regular season, Indiana sits at No. 52 in the NET ranking. While that number isn't great relative to the rest of the bubble, it is still higher than that of fellow bubble teams Colorado State, UC Irvine and Nebraska.
Some of the underlying numbers are much more in favor of Indiana, which is why it is in a strong position relative to a pretty weak bubble. KenPom has the Hoosiers rated at No. 44 in the nation and Mike Woodson's squad is comfortably at No. 33 in the KPI metric.
The Hoosiers are 44th in wins above bubble and 47th in strength of record, on par with their very bubbly resume. However, one number sticks out above the rest that Indiana can lean on heading into to Selection Sunday.
Woodson and company have a 4-12 record in Quad 1 games, which is not great but it could be much worse, just ask North Carolina. However, Indiana is a pristine 15-0 against the other three quadrants, so they don't have any losses that stick out on the resume despite losing to some teams who will miss the tournament. If Indiana can add a Quad 1 win or two in Indianapolis, it will feel very good about its chances of making the bracket.
What Hoosiers need to do in Big Ten Tournament
Indiana did well enough in the regular season to earn a bye in the Big Ten Tournament, but it still has a very challenging game in front of it if it wants to get to the quarterfinals. Mike Woodson and company will take on Oregon, who is solidly in the NCAA Tournament, for the right to play top seed Michigan State on Friday.
Indiana is currently in the bracket in most projections, but the margins are very slim. The Hoosiers are in the field in 108 of the 109 brackets currently being tracked on Bracket Matrix, but they are still in the last four in and projected to go to Dayton for the First Four.
Beating Oregon will be no easy task for Indiana. The Ducks knocked off the Hoosiers 73-64 in Eugene on March 4 in a game where Mike Woodson was not happy with the officials. Oregon has an elite point guard in Jackson Shelstead and one of the best big men in the conference in Nate Bittle.
Indiana will know more about the state of the rest of the bubble by the time it takes the court on Thursday morning, namely if North Carolina is still alive after its game against Notre Dame on Wednesday. Regardless if Woodson and company get some help from around the country or not, it would be to their benefit to knock off the Ducks.
A win on Thursday would give Indiana a fifth Quad 1 win on the season and give it a fairly sound resume heading into Selection Sunday compared to the other teams around it. It would also be another win that could move Indiana up the seed list and get it out of Dayton and into the round of 64.
A game against a red-hot Michigan State squad would also be a massive opportunity for Indiana. If the Hoosiers were to win that one and make a run to the semifinals, there is a small chance that they could move up an entire seed line and be a No. 10 seed, which would give them a massive amount of momentum heading into the NCAA Tournament.
Woodson's squad would also go into that quarterfinal with plenty of confidence coming off of a big win against the Spartans in East Lansing. That would create an interesting dynamic for an Indiana team that would have nothing to lose coming off of the win against Oregon and could be very dangerous for Tom Izzo and company.
Overall, this Indiana team will likely find itself close to the cut line one way or another on Selection Sunday. A win against Oregon would give it a lot more confidence during the lead-up to the bracket reveal.
