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In recent years, many fans have questioned whether Kentucky's basketball program was prioritizing winning championships or developing NBA players. The 31 ex-Wildcats in the NBA are by far the most in college basketball, but the team hasn't had a Final Four appearance since 2015 to show for it. The team still has the second most national championships in history, but they've often disappointed in the NCAA Tournament in recent years.
Winning March Madness at all costs is clearly the priority now. John Calipari no longer coaches the team, and Mark Pope has played more veteran players during the 2024-25 season than his predecessor ever did. Kentucky is a three-seed in the Midwest region. Below are two reasons why Kentucky will win the Big Dance for the first time since 2012.
Kentucky's favorable path to the national championship
Kentucky has one of the easiest paths to the Final Four and beyond, which exponentially increases their national championship odds. Their first-round matchup is against Troy. Not only do 14 seeds rarely knock off teams in the three slot, but Troy has actually never won a tournament game before.
A win in the first round will lead the Wildcats to a Round of 32 matchup against either Illinois or Xavier. Either of those teams are very beatable as well. Illinois is led by a freshman. Kasparas Jakucionis is the leading scorer for the Illini, and while he will be a lottery pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, it is sometimes hard for college teams to count on youngsters during March Madness. Kentucky could tell you this firsthand, but more on that later. Additionally, Xavier is coming off of a grueling game against Texas in the First Four, so they won't have the fresh legs Kentucky will have.
Kentucky's likely Sweet 16 opponent would be Tennessee. The Volunteers have a great defense, as evidenced by their being third in the nation in defensive efficiency. However, Kentucky's impressive offense might just be enough to overcome that. The Wildcats are eighth in offensive rating with a 123.8 mark. The team gets buckets up and in with ease, which is illustrated by the 85.3 points that they score per game.
By the time the Elite Eight rolls around, it is impossible to know exactly how the Midwest region will have shaken out. If Kentucky were to make it that far, though, it would be clear that they were scorching hot, and the team could ride that momentum all the way to the national championship.
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Experience and veteran talent
In recent years, Kentucky basketball has had enough elite talent to earn high seeds in the NCAA Tournament. However, with one-and-done players filling their rotation, the team has lacked the experience necessary to make a true run in the Big Dance. This Kentucky team looks nothing like the units that Calipari led, though.
Five of the six leading scorers on this team are seniors, and most of them have tournament experience. Jaxson Robins (13.0 PPG), Lamont Butler (11.5), Kobe Brea (11.5), Amari Williams (11.0), and Andrew Carr (10.5) all average double-digit scoring numbers. Butler, in particular, is notable for his Big Dance experience, as he was the player who hit the game-winner for San Diego State University that sent them to the national championship game two years ago.
Otega Oweh is actually the player who leads the team in scoring at 16.2 points per game, but he is no spring chicken, either. Oweh is a junior. He, along with most of Kentucky's core, joined this team via the transfer portal. The days of great recruiting classes for players who just want to get their one required collegiate season in before bolting for the NBA seem to be over in Lexington. Now, returning to form as a perennial contender and prestigious blue blood seems to be the way Kentucky's basketball program is headed. A championship run would certainly get the team there.
