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College football Week 7 is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory, with plenty of top matchups across the country. None, however, is bigger than the showdown between No. 2 Ohio State (5-0) and No. 3 Oregon (5-0). This clash between newly minted Big Ten rivals is set to take place at Oregon's Autzen Stadium, and it’s been one of the most anticipated games of the 2024 season.
Thanks to conference realignment, these kinds of high-profile matchups are becoming more common, but this game feels extra special. Both teams are undefeated, both are in the College Football Playoff hunt, and both are stacked with talent. The question on everyone's min, though is–who has the edge?
While two top-3 teams colliding often makes predicting a winner tricky, a deeper dive into certain areas of play reveals that Ohio State could have some key advantages they’ll look to exploit to walk away from Eugene with a statement win.
Ohio State should have the advantage at the line of scrimmage
The old football adage, “the battle is won in the trenches,” rings true for this Top 5 showdown between Ohio State and Oregon. More often than not, the team that controls the line of scrimmage dictates the flow of the game. On paper, Ohio State should have the edge in this matchup because of their powerful offensive and defensive lines, both of which have been dominant throughout the season. Winning these battles up front could give the Buckeyes a major advantage, especially when it comes to running the football.
Ohio State should be able to effectively run the ball against Oregon
A key focus for Ohio State on Saturday will be establishing their potent running game. Head coach Ryan Day made it clear in the offseason that he wanted to upgrade the Buckeyes' backfield, and he did just that by adding former Ole Miss standout Quinshon Judkins through the transfer portal. Judkins, paired with Ohio State's star running back TreyVeyon Henderson, has created a formidable one-two punch that has kept opposing defenses on their heels all season long.
As a result, Ohio State football currently ranks No. 15 in the nation in rushing, averaging 222.2 yards per game at an impressive 6.24 yards per carry. This dynamic ground attack has been a major reason why the Buckeyes' offense has been so difficult to stop.
Oregon, meanwhile, comes into this game with a solid run defense, allowing just 101.4 rushing yards per game at 3.65 yards per carry. However, their performance against Boise State in Week 2 may give Ohio State some confidence. In that game, Oregon allowed the Broncos to rack up 221 rushing yards, with most of the damage coming from Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty, who gashed them for 192 yards and three touchdowns. While the Ducks won't face Jeanty on Saturday, they will have to contend with Judkins and Henderson, two of the most talented backs in the country.
It’s also worth noting that Ohio State’s new offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly—who ironically is the former head coach at Oregon—is known for his love of the running game. Kelly is likely to emphasize establishing the run early, with the goal of wearing down Oregon's defense, controlling the clock, and setting up the Buckeyes' potent passing attack. If Ohio State can consistently move the ball on the ground, they could control the tempo of the game and keep Oregon’s explosive offense off the field.
Ohio State's defensive line could give Oregon's offensive line fits, pressuring Dillon Gabriel
While Oregon has picked up the pace in their last few games, their offensive line has been a bit of a weak spot, particularly early in the season. Dillon Gabriel, who transferred to Oregon this year, has done a stellar job maintaining the highest completion percentage in the country (77.8), but he’s also taken a fair amount of hits. In the Ducks' first two games against Idaho and Boise State, Gabriel was sacked a total of seven times, highlighting some issues with the offensive line’s pass protection. Last year, Gabriel was sacked 17 times total with the Oklahoma Sooners, and it seems the protection in Eugene is still a work in progress.
The offensive line this season lacks the same depth and cohesion that made last year’s group so formidable. The departure of first-round pick Jackson Powers-Johnson, who anchored the line at center, has been a tough void to fill. However, Oregon has shown improvements in pass protection recently, grading 84.6 in their last two games after averaging just 61.1 in the first two, according to Pro Football Focus.
The bad news for Oregon is that they haven’t faced a pass rush as fierce as Ohio State’s. The Buckeyes currently rank 8th in the country in team sacks with 17, averaging 3.4 per game. They’re also third in pass rush grade at 87.6, which could spell trouble for the Ducks’ offensive line. Ohio State’s defensive ends, particularly JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, have been nightmares for opposing quarterbacks, and they could be a major problem for Gabriel.
Oregon's offensive line will need to be at its best to keep Gabriel upright and give him time to make plays. If Ohio State’s pass rush can consistently get into the backfield, it could severely disrupt Oregon’s offense and tilt the game in the Buckeyes’ favor.
