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One of the teams under the most pressure heading into the 2025 season is Texas football. Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns have suffered painful losses in the College Football Playoff semifinals in two consecutive seasons after Ohio State ended their run last year in the Cotton Bowl.
Of course, the quarterback is going to steal most of the headlines for Texas. Arch Manning is finally getting his time in the sun after Quinn Ewers went off to the NFL, and he immediately projects to be one of the best passers in the nation. Manning was used as a running quarterback last season and got a couple of starts while Ewers was out injured, but his full skillset will be on display in 2025.
The Longhorns also have a number of key pieces back, including talented wideout Ryan Wingo on the outside. On defense, star freshman Collin Simmons is back for his second season on the edge and Trey Moore is one of the best transfers in the nation. Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and cornerback Malik Muhammad also both have a chance to be first-round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Texas is also playing its second season in the SEC, so the schedule will not be kind. However, they have the talent to beat anybody on any day, and they nearly do that in this schedule prediction.
Week 1 – at Ohio State
This is a brutal opener for everybody involved, but especially for Manning. No matter how talented he is, starting your first full season as a starter at The Shoe in Columbus against the defending national champions is a tough ask.
On paper, Texas may be slightly better than the Buckeyes throughout the course of the season, and it will also have the revenge factor coming in after losing the Cotton Bowl to Ryan Day and company. The Buckeyes will have a new quarterback of their own, likely Julian Sayin, and will have another elite defense led by star safety Caleb Downs on the back end.
Later in the season, Texas may get the nod here just based on talent. But Columbus is gonna be rocking for this one and, in Manning's first start of the year, that may be a bridge too far for Sarkisian and company.
Pick: Ohio State 23, Texas 20 (0-1)
Week 2 – vs. San Jose State
Now that the behemoth of an opener out of the way, Texas can start to get some reps and build some continuity during the month of September against lesser competition before the SEC gauntlet gets going. San Jose State coming to Austin, especially with Texas coming off of a loss in this scenario, should be no match for what the Longhorns bring to the table. Texas easily gets to 1-1 here.
Pick: Texas 52, San Jose State 10 (1-1)
Week 3 – vs. UTEP
UTEP has only been bowl eligible once in the last 10 years, and the Miners are still rebuilding in year two under new head coach Scotty Walden. However, they don't have the talent or the explosiveness to keep up in this in-state battle as Texas picks up another comfortable victory.
Pick: Texas 45, UTEP 3 (2-1)
Week 4 – vs. Sam Houston
Texas' final tune-up comes against Sam Houston, which was one of the best programs in the FCS for a long time and even won the 2020 National Championship. 2023 wasn't pretty as the Bearkats' first season in the FBS, but they responded with 10 wins and a bowl victory in 2024. Expect this team to make some more noise in Conference USA in 2025 and be in another bowl game, but I wouldn't expect too much from it in this spot.
Sam Houston pushes Texas harder than San Jose State or UTEP did, but there's no danger here.
Pick: Texas 41, Sam Houston 16 (3-1)
Week 6 – at Florida
Texas gets a bye week in Week 5 before the SEC schedule kicks off with one of the most highly-anticipated games of the bunch. NFL teams with an eye on the 2027 draft will certainly be tuned in for the battle between Manning and DJ Lagway in The Swamp.
Florida should be much-improved next season around Lagway after a productive offseason in the transfer portal, and having one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country will make it tough for anyone to beat. However, Texas should have the talent advantage, especially at the skill positions on both sides of the ball.
The raucous environment in Gainesville should make this one difficult, but Sarkisian and Manning with two weeks to prepare should be enough to get the job done.
Pick: Texas 30, Florida 27 (4-1)
Week 7 – vs. Oklahoma (neutral)
Now this game will be popping off at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The Red River Rivalry never disappoints, even when one of the two sides is having an underwhelming season. That shouldn't be the case as Texas should be one of the best squads in the nation while Oklahoma has completely overhauled its offense with the additions of John Mateer and Jaydn Ott.
There is a chance that both quarterbacks could be in the Heisman Trophy conversation at this point in the season, which would make for a classic battle between these two longtime rivals. The Sooners should also be much better defensively with Brent Venables retaking play calling duties, but that won't be enough to take down Texas in a game that will be very close and should have a lot of points.
Pick: Texas 37, Oklahoma 34 (5-1)
Week 8 – at Kentucky
Kentucky is always a tricky opponent, especially on the road. Just ask Georgia, who barely escaped a 13-12 slugfest down in Lexington in 2024. Mark Stoops also added a number of intriguing transfers to the roster, including former Texas A&M starting quarterback Zach Calzada.
The Wildcats could be feisty and that defense will be flying around again, especially if this game is at night in front of a sellout crowd, but talent wins out in the end. Texas pulls away after a tight first half.
Pick: Texas 27, Kentucky 13 (6-1)
Week 9 – at Mississippi State
Mississippi State was the worst team in the SEC last season, and it's hard to see a rapid turnaround in year two under Jeff Lebby. The former Oklahoma offensive coordinator has strong pedigree as a coach and should see immediate improvement in his Bulldogs squad from last season, but there are levels to this, and Texas is many steps above what's happening in Starkville at the moment.
Pick: Texas 33, Mississippi State 16 (7-1)
Week 10 – vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt was no joke last year and became somewhat of the giant killers of the SEC, and the Commodores should have a solid group again in 2025. Diego Pavia is back under a rule named after himself and is ready to slay more dragons at the top of the conference after beating Alabama and nearly knocking off Texas a year ago.
Unfortunately, that won't be happening in Austin against Sarkisian and company. While Vanderbilt has the capability to generate some explosive plays, Texas will have a more consistent offense with Manning at the helm in 2025 than it did a year ago. At this point in the season, the talented signal caller will be starting to get into a groove with Sarkisian and his receivers, and that down-to-down efficiency is the difference in this game.
Pick: Texas 45, Vanderbilt 23 (8-1)
Week 12 – at Georgia
Texas got a gift from the schedule-makers in that its two bye weeks come before two of the biggest games of the season. Following a week off in Week 11, Sarkisian and company will go between the hedges and play Georgia down in Athens.
Even after losing Carson Beck, this Bulldogs team should be very good. Gunner Stockton showed promise in relief late last season, Nate Frazier has all the makings of an elite back and Kirby Smart added an explosive weapon in Zachariah Branch at wide receiver. That's not to mention the defense, which should be one of the best in the nation with CJ Allen in the middle.
Texas went 0-2 against Georgia last season despite not playing in Athens in either game, so Georgia has the upper hand in this matchup. While revenge will be on Texas' mind, Smart clearly knows how to slow down Sarkisian's high-powered offense. Better quarterback play will help that on the Longhorns side, but it won't be enough to make up the gap entirely.
Pick: Georgia 21, Texas 20 (8-2)
Week 13 – vs. Arkansas
This is a letdown spot for Texas, but its antenna should be up coming off of the crushing loss the week before. The Razorbacks will be difficult to defend with dual-threat Taylen Green at quarterback to go with a defense that should be stout again under Sam Pittman in 2025.
If Texas beats Georgia, this game could be trouble for the Longhorns. However, coming off a loss and playing at home should eliminate any chance of a trap game.
Pick: Texas 28, Arkansas 17 (9-2)
Week 14 – vs. Texas A&M
Texas finishes its regular season on a short week against rival Texas A&M on a Friday. Mike Elko's group is one of the most intriguing groups in the SEC this season with Marcel Reed returning at quarterback.
Texas A&M always recruits well enough to have a stout defense, but Reed's development will determine its ceiling this season. While he should improve through the air and have the Aggies near the top of the conference again in 2025, getting a win in Austin against a rival as good as Texas will still be very difficult.
Pick: Texas 23, Texas A&M 13 (10-2)
Final Texas football 2025 season prediction
A 10-2 mark should be good enough to get Texas into the College Football Playoff, and it should have a strong chance of making the SEC title game with only one conference loss in this scenario. While 10-2 would be relatively average considering the expectations for this team heading into the season, Sarkisian and company would still have the chance to battle for a conference and national title and would be one of the favorites to get the job done.
