It is an SEC showdown in Week 8 as LSU travels to Nashville to face Vanderbilt. Both teams come in with one loss in conference play, and the loser of this game could be out of the chase to make the conference championship. It should be a wonderful clash as we make bold predictions on this Week 8 SEC battle.
LSU returned to the top five of the SEC Power Rankings this week after a win over South Carolina. The team started 4-0 before a loss to Ole Miss. They would then have an open week before hosting South Carolina. The defense led the way for the Tigers. They forced two turnovers and held South Carolina to just 317 yards of offense. This resulted in a 20-10 victory, and now a 5-1 record on the year.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is also 5-1 on the season. They opened the year 5-0 and were dominating teams. The Commodores won every game by at least 20 points, including a 31-7 win over South Carolina in their SEC opener. The team would then visit Alabama in Week 6. The game was closer than the score suggested, but they still fell 30-14. Vanderbilt's quarterback, Diego Pavia, says they still have national title aspirations, but it needs to start with a win over LSU. They had an open week to prepare for the game. Vanderbilt has not defeated LSU since 1990. The Tigers have won ten straight in the series.
Third-down conversions are a major factor
Vanderbilt struggled on third down for the first time all year when they faced Alabama, converting just five of 11 chances, and then going 0-1 on fourth down. Vandy is currently second in the nation on third-down conversions this year. They are converting over 56 percent of the time in those situations this year.
Meanwhile, the LSU defense has been solid on third down. They currently rank 36th in the nation against third-down conversions, holding teams to just a 34.67 percent conversion rate. In their only loss of the year, Ole Miss converted eight of 16 third-downs and then went 2-2 on fourth down. While the Vanderbilt offense against the LSU defense is a strength against strength matchup, the LSU offense agaisnt the Vanderbilt defense is not.
LSU is 92nd in the nation in converting third downs this year on offense, converting just under 37 percent of the time. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is 72nd in the nation in stopping third-down conversions, allowing a nearly 40 percent conversion rate. Maintaining the ball is going to be key to getting the win. Considering the two teams are nearly the same in turnover margin, the team that can stay on the field on offense and control the ball will win this game.
The LSU offense continues to struggle
The LSU offensive struggles continue. Garrett Nuessmeier has been a major part of the offense's woes, as the one-time Heisman favorite has not played well this year. He has completed just 135 of 204 passes for 1,413 yards. He has nine touchdowns, but has also been intercepted five times while being sacked seven times. His five interceptions tie him for third in the SEC in picks this year. Meanwhile, his quarterback rating is also one of the worst in the conference, ahead of just DJ Lagway of Florida, Jackson Arnold of Auburn, and the two quarterbacks for Kentucky.
His overall performance has led to offensive struggles as a whole. LSU is 104th in the nation in points per game while sitting 91st in yards per game. Meanwhile, they are 65th in passing yards, but also 19th in passing play percentage. Further, the big plays are happening in the pass game, but not for the offense. The team is 92nd in passing yards per attempt, while also 85th in the nation in interception rate.
Meanwhile, the Vanderbilt defense has been solid this year. They are 43rd in the nation, allowing just 22.6 points per game. The team is also 42nd in the nation in yards per game. The pass defense has been the weaker spot, sitting 97th in opponent yards per game, but also 55th in yards per attempt, and they get to the quarterback well. The Dores are 29th in the nation in sack percentage.
Miles Capers has been great this year, causing backfield chaos. He has 4.5 sacks with multiple other quarterback pressures, plus a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. Capers is going to make a big play in this one that gives Vanderbilt a distinct advantage.
The Vanderbilt ground game brings them an upset
Vanderbilt has been great on offense this year. The Commodores are fourth in the nation in points per game this year while sitting 14th in yards per game. A major part of this for Vanderbilt has been the run game. While they run the ball on just 50.48 percent of their plays, which is 80th in the nation, they are 17th in yards per game on the ground. Further, the runs have eaten up yardage, averaging 6.7 yards per carry.
Running backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young have been the main contributors from that position. Alexander has 319 yards on the ground this year and has found the end zone five times. Meanwhile, Young has run for 211 yards while averaging ten yards per game. He has scored four times on the ground. Both of them also have rushes of over 60 yards this year.
Still, any conversation about the run game also has to include Diego Pavia. Pavia has run the ball 60 times for 352 yards. After taking away sack yardage, it is 54 runs for 375 yards, good for 6.94 yards per carry. He has also scored twice on the ground to go with his 14 passing touchdowns.
Vanderbilt is going to be facing a solid run defense. LSU is 24th in the nation in opponent rushing yards per game this year. Regardless, the defense is going to get tired. Third-down conversion rates will play a factor here as Vanderbilt will stay on the field, while LSU is not. Expect someone to break a major run in this one, leading to Vanderbilt getting the home upset over LSU.
