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There hasn’t been a better team in college football this season than the Oregon Ducks. Their perfect 9-0 record speaks for itself, along with their No. 1 ranking in the College Football Playoff, which has remained unchanged since the initial rankings were released back in Week 10.
In a season where perfection was rare and every other contender suffered at least one blemish, the Ducks stayed unscathed. So what’s there to worry about for this year’s Oregon football team? After all, they entered a tougher, deeper Big Ten conference and essentially dominated from start to finish.
It’s not like Oregon cruised through an easy schedule, either. The Ducks boast wins over four currently ranked teams, including two in the top 10: No. 4 Penn State, whom they defeated in the Big Ten Championship, and No. 9 Boise State, the Mountain West champions who also earned a first-round playoff bye alongside Oregon. ESPN gives them the No. 34 overall strength of schedule.
Now, all that’s left for Oregon is to sit and wait to see who their opponent will be in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. It will be either No. 8 seed Ohio State or No. 9 seed Tennessee. The Buckeyes and Vols will clash on Dec. 21 in one of the first-ever CFP first-round home games, with the matchup set to take place in Columbus at Ohio Stadium.
For all their dominance, the biggest flaw for this year’s Oregon football team might just be the “luck” of the draw they received in the highly debatable playoff seeding.
Oregon earns horrible seeding in first-ever 12-team CFP
As exciting and intriguing as this first 12-team playoff promised to be, it was inevitable that some questions and critiques would surface. Every iteration of the college football postseason has faced scrutiny, and after the final Selection Day, it became clear that this current version may need adjustments.
You’d think Oregon, which earned the No. 1 ranking after an undefeated season and a Big Ten Championship, would receive the clearest path to the national championship. But in reality, their path appears anything but smooth. In fact, Oregon arguably has the toughest road of any of the four highest-ranked conference champions that received a first-round bye.
“What a horrendous job this committee did,” Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt said. “The team that was penalized the most was Oregon, and the team that was rewarded the most was Penn State… I guess the Ducks should have laid down in the fourth (quarter)… Just atrocious.”
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Klatt's criticism highlights an apparent imbalance in the bracket. Oregon, as the No. 1 seed, will face the winner of No. 8 Ohio State and No. 9 Tennessee in the Rose Bowl. However, both of these teams are ranked higher in the CFP standings—Ohio State at No. 6 and Tennessee at No. 7—than any opponent Penn State, the No. 6 seed, could face on their way to the semifinals.
Should the Ducks defeat either Ohio State for a second time—a notoriously difficult feat—or Tennessee, they would then likely face either No. 3 Texas or No. 16 Clemson.
Texas narrowly lost to Georgia in a rematch in the SEC Championship Game, while Clemson comes in as the reigning ACC champion. Both opponents present unique challenges for Oregon, and neither matchup can be taken lightly.
If Oregon manages to navigate these hurdles, only then would they reach the national championship game. Never in the history of college football has a No. 1 seed faced such a daunting playoff path. While Dan Lanning has done an exceptional job transforming the Ducks since his arrival, nothing could have fully prepared his team for this gauntlet.
“What an opportunity, right?” Lanning said when asked about Oregon's seeding on ESPN's CFP Selection Day show, per 247Sports. “I mean, look, in our world, we always talk about red light, green light. Focus on the things you can control, right?
“That's what we're going to focus on. And you know, winning a national championship isn't supposed to be easy. You can ask Coach Saban. It's not supposed to be easy. So if our path’s a little bit tougher, kudos to us if we go through it and take care of business.”
Lanning’s optimism and focus are admirable, but the reality of the Ducks' playoff path cannot be understated. Oregon’s journey to the title is fraught with peril, requiring not just skill and preparation but resilience and a bit of luck.
For now, the Ducks can only prepare for what lies ahead: a Rose Bowl clash with either Ohio State or Tennessee, two programs hungry to spoil Oregon’s perfect season.
